2021 Bank of America ROVAL 400 NASCAR Cup Playoffs Race Preview, Odds, Props & Predictions
Sunday, October 10, 2021
by LVSB Team

Final Eight for NASCAR Championship to be Determined on the Road at Charlotte

2021 Bank of America ROVAL 400 NASCAR Cup Playoffs Race Preview, Odds, Props & Predictions

This week’s Bank of America Roval 400 is the final road race of the season and it is the final of three races that will narrow the field in the mix for the NASCAR Championship from 12 to eight drivers.

A quick primer on how the playoffs work. All drivers on the circuit compete in each race, but only 12 drivers in the field remain who are competing to be the NASCAR champion. The playoffs are divided into four stages. Each of the first three stages consist of three races. The winners of each race automatically advance to the next stage. Four of the top 16 have already been eliminated. Now in this second stage, 12 drivers remain eligible for the top prize. Eight drivers advance to round three. Four drivers advance to the finals and the highest finisher in that single race will be crowned the champ.

Denny Hamlin is the only driver who has booked his spot in the next round. Last week Bubba Wallace won at Talladega -his first ever victory- and he is not in the top-12.

13 points separate Kyle Larson in second place and Kyle Busch in eighth with Kevin Harvick nine points behind Busch. As such, all the top drivers will be gunning for a win with so much on the line this week.

William Byron (+1400) and Alex Bowman (+2500) are 44 and 52 points back of the cut off line respectively and would need to win their first ever road races to book their spot in the final-eight.

Chase Elliott (+200) has not won a race since taking the checkered flag at Road America on July 4th. Both of his wins this year have been on the road and he’s the two time-defending champion here. He’s tied with Busch for the final spot and would love to give himself some breathing room on his favorite kind of track.

Kyle Larson (+450) has fallen back to the pack after finishing 10th and 37th the last two weeks. He has three wins on the road this season and statistically has been the top driver on this surface, just as he has the ovals.

Martin Truex Jr. (+700) is a four-time winner on road courses with 13 top-five results in 38 career races. None of his wins have been on the road this year, but he did finish third at Sonoma and before the chaos of Talladega he had three top-four results -including a win- in his last four races.

Kyle Busch (+1100) has four career road wins and 14 top-five results. He’s also been among the best road drivers this season, in the year where there are more road courses than ever. At these odds he could be worth an investment.

Denny Hamlin (+1200) as the only driver who has clinched his spot, he has the most freedom to drive an aggressive race and gun for the win. His real road racing stats puts him as third best on this surface this season. With two wins and a second-place result in five races, he’s saved his best for the playoffs.

Christopher Bell (+1400) all but certainly needs a win this week to book his spot in the final-eight. He did win his first road race in the first road course of the season. It one of his two top-five results in eight career road races.

Kevin Harvick (+2800) has just two career road wins in 48 tries to go along with 10 top-five results. He’s still without a win this season, but he’s got nothing to lose this week as an appealing long-shot.

Read on to see our pick for this week.

NASCAR Race: Bank of America ROVAL 400
Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course
Track Type: Road
Location: Concord, North Carolina
Laps: 109
Last Year Winner: Chase Elliott
Last Race Winner: Bubba Wallace
Last Race 2nd Place: Brad Keselowski
Points Leaders: Denny Hamlin
Television: Sunday, 2:00 PM ET NBC
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

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Here are the Odds for the Top Drivers:
Bank of America ROVAL 400
Chase Elliott #9    +200
Kyle Larson #5    +450
Martin Truex Jr. #19    +700
Kyle Busch #18    +1100
Denny Hamlin #11    +1200
William Byron #24    +1400
Christopher Bell #20    +1400
A. J. Allmendinger #16    +1500
Ryan Blaney #12    +2000
Joey Logano #22    +2000
Alex Bowman #48    +2500
Kurt Busch #1    +2800
Kevin Harvick #4    +2800
Brad Keselowski #2    +4000
Chase Briscoe #14    +4000
Ross Chastain #42    +4000
Tyler Reddick #8    +5000
Matt DiBenedetto #21    +6000
Erik Jones #43    +10000
Michael McDowell #34    +10000

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook

The Prediction: (Kyle Larson +450)
The best driver this season could use a win to regain momentum and this is a great course to do it as he looks for his third career road win.

Value Pick: (Denny Hamlin +1200)
He’s bringing his A-game every week in these playoffs and that makes him the best choice in this range.

The Long Shot: (Kevin Harvick +2800)
Will need the best cars to falter, but that happens almost every race. From there, an aggressive race plan could give him that much coveted win.

Propping up:

  1. Take Denny Hamlin #11 +350 for Top 3 Finish
  2. Take Joey Logano #22 +290 for Top 5 Finish
  3. Take Brad Keselowski #2 +135 for Top 10 Finish
  4. Driver H2H Match Up Take Kyle Busch #18 +130 over Martin Truex Jr. #19
  5. Total Cautions Over 9.5 +120
  6. Long Shot Bets - Kyle Larson To Be Top Chevrolet Car and Denny Hamlin To Be Top Toyota Car +1400

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* Tags
brad keselowski - bubba wallace - charlotte motor speedway - chase elliott - denny hamlin - kevin harvick - kyle busch - kyle larson

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