2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race Preview, Odds, Props and Predictions
Friday, September 10, 2021
by LVSB Team

Short Track at Richmond Hosts Second Playoff Race of Season

2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race Preview, Odds, Props and Predictions

Denny Hamlin (+500) finally picked up his first win of the season last week after 13 top-five results without a win that catapulted him to second in the points standings.

The win clinched his berth in the second round of playoffs.

A quick primer on how the playoffs work. All drivers on the circuit compete in each race, but only the top 16 who qualified are competing to be the NASCAR champion. The playoffs are divided into four stages. Each of the first three stages consist of three races. The winners of each race automatically advance to the next stage. In this first stage, the remaining top point getters that add up to 12 drivers move on to round two. Eight drivers advance to round three. Four drivers advance to the finals and the highest finisher in that race will be crowned the champ.

Hamlin is the second favorite this week with three career wins here and 14 top-five results. He finished second here in the April race, the sixth top-five result in eight races since he last won it all in 2016. He’s got four top-five results in his last eight races this season.

Martin Truex Jr. (+400) has been the best driver at Richmond in recent years with two wins and five straight top-five results. He finished fifth here in April. It’s been an up and down season as he has three wins this year, but only three top-eight results in the last 12 races. One of them was last week at Darlington when he finished fourth.

Kyle Busch (+650) is currently 14th in the points standings, on the bubble of missing out on the next round. He has one top-five result in his last six races including accidents the last two weeks. He finished eighth in Richmond earlier this year, but has six wins here all-time and 18 top-five results in 31 races. His last win was the Fall race of 2018. He’s finished 8-6-2-8 since then.

Kyle Larson (+900) finished second last week and has one career win here and two top-five results in 13 Richmond races. He has not finished top-five since winning the Fall race in 2017. In the spring his pit crew did not have a great setup and it cost him. He’s got four top-five results including a win in his last five races.

Brad Keselowski (+1000) has had a disappointing second half to his season with just three top-five results in his last 17 races. He finished 14th in Richmond, but he won the Fall race last year and was fourth the year before.

Alex Bowman (+1800) won the spring race here, stealing it from Hamlin. He led just ten laps to Hamlin’s 207, but a series of late moves earned him the win. He’s in 13th place in the points standings, two up on Busch and tied with Tyler Reddick who is in 12th.

Tyler Reddick (+6000) is getting very long odds for someone in the playoff mix. He has just two top-five results this year and 13 top-ten finishes. In two career races in Richmond, he’s finished 20th and 11th. Still, on a hot sticky night, he could find some speed and at these long odds in a tightly contested playoff race, he’ll need to take some chances.

Read on to see our pick for this week.

NASCAR Race: Federated Auto Parts 400
Date: Saturday, September 11, 2021
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Track: Richmond International Raceway
Track Type: Short Track
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Laps: 367
Last Year Winner: Brad Keselowski
Last Race Winner: Denny Hamlin
Last Race 2nd Place: Kyle Larson
Points Leaders: Kyle Larson
Television: Saturday, 7:30 PM ET NBCSN
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Bet on Federated Auto Parts 400 at Bovada Sportsbook and get a free 50% bonus.

Here are the Odds for the Top Drivers:

Monster Energy
Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute To First Responders
Martin Truex Jr. #19    +400
Denny Hamlin #11    +500
Kyle Busch #18    +650
Joey Logano #22    +700
Kyle Larson #5    +900
Brad Keselowski #2    +1000
Kevin Harvick #4    +1100
Chase Elliott #9    +1200
Christopher Bell #20    +1500
William Byron #24    +1600
Alex Bowman #48    +1800
Ryan Blaney #12    +2000
Aric Almirola #10    +3000
Kurt Busch #1    +3000
Austin Dillon #3    +5000
Ross Chastain #42    +5000
Matt DiBenedetto #21    +6000
Tyler Reddick #8    +6000
Cole Custer #41    +8000
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #47    +10000

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook

The Prediction: (Kyle Busch +650)
His JGR teammate won last week and now he gets a win at a track he’s had a lot of success at to cement his playoff spot. If you want to diversify, Hamlin getting his second straight win is worth a shot given his recent dominance here.

Value Pick: (Alex Bowman +1800)
Lightning strikes twice and Bowman finds his way to a win

The Long Shot: (Tyler Reddick +6000)
Gets his first career win and books his spot in round two

Propping up:

  1. Take Kyle Larson #5 +175 for Top 3 Finish
  2. Take Alex Bowman #48 +200 for Top 5 Finish
  3. Take Kurt Busch #1 +110 for Top 10 Finish
  4. Driver H2H Match Up Take Tyler Reddick #8-120 over Brad Keselowski #2
  5. Total Cautions Over 5.5 EVEN
  6. Long Shot Bets - William Byron and Alex Bowman Both To Finish In The Top 5 +850

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* Tags
brad keselowski - denny hamlin - kyle larson - richmond international raceway

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