Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 NASCAR Cup Series Race Preview, Odds, Props and Predictions
Sunday, July 18, 2021
by LVSB Team

Rain Could Play Havoc This Sunday in New Hampshire

Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 NASCAR Cup Series Race Preview, Odds, Props and Predictions

Just like on race day, as soon as you thought there was some predictability to how to pick a NASCAR race, the drivers zigged when you thought they would zag. Kyle Larson (+400), seemingly unbeatable for a couple of months has now finished 18th and 16th in his last two races.

Hendricks’s drivers, which had won seven of eight races have now come up short in three of the last four races.

Last week in Atlanta made us think of the beginning of the season when there was seemingly a surprise winner every week. Kurt Busch (+2800) turned back the clock to post his first win of the season with a little blocking help on the final lap from his teammate Ross Chastain (+7700) on Busch’s brother Kyle.

This week there is rain in the forecast for Sunday’s race with stating a 100% chance of precipitation, albeit coming down as occasional rain showers. That could bring another surprise winner on the short track.

Larson (+400) is the favorite after early betting money went in his favor, but the closest comparables, including at Richmond (18th) and Martinsville (5th) were not his best efforts. This is a heavy braking course that doesn’t play to his strengths.

Denny Hamlin (+500) was the early betting favorite and still second favorite after finishing second the last two years and picking up a win in 2017. He’s the points leader, but still looking for his first win of the season.

Kyle Busch (+575) has also seen early money go his way as he’s finished top-three in four straight races with a win and two second place results. He’s finished top-3 in seven of his last 13 races here including two wins.

Martin Truex Jr. (+600) appears to be heating up after an extended cold spell. After finishing out of the top-10 in six of seven races, he finished ninth at Road America and was third last week. His two wins this year have come on the short tracks at Phoenix and Martinsville and he’s finished top-seven at this event five straight times. He is however looking for his first ever win here.

Chase Elliott (+800) is looking for his first win here as well. But the Hendricks driver seems to have bounced back from poor results in June with a win and seventh place result in his last two races. He’s finished ninth or better here in two of his last three races.

William Byron (+1200) has raced very well on short tracks all season, but he’s still looking for his first win.

Alex Bowman (+1400) is an intriguing intermediate pick as he has two wins this year on short tracks. This has quietly been a breakthrough campaign for him with three wins overall and four more top-six results. His skill at pit stops could be an advantage in the rain.

Christopher Bell (+2000) is a terrific longer-shot pick this week as he has the ninth-best driver rating in high horsepower low downforce races. He’s got 13th best odds here.

Ross Chastain (+7700) helped propel his teammate to a win last week and if the weather helps yield wild results here, he could be the beneficiary. He already finished second in Nashville earlier this year on a track that is comparable to this one.

Read on to see our pick for this week.

NASCAR Race: Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Date: Sunday, July 18, 2021
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Track Type: Speedway
Location: Loudon, New Hampshire
Laps: 260
Last Year Winner: Brad Keselowski
Last Race Winner: Kurt Busch
Last Race 2nd Place: Kyle Busch
Points Leaders: Kyle Larson
Television: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET NBCSN
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

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Here are the Odds for the Top Drivers:

Monster Energy
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 @ New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Kyle Larson #5    +400
Denny Hamlin #11    +500
Kyle Busch #18    +575
Martin Truex Jr. #19    +600
Brad Keselowski #2    +700
Chase Elliott #9    +800
Joey Logano #22    +1100
Kevin Harvick #4    +1100
William Byron #24    +1200
Alex Bowman #48    +1400
Ryan Blaney #12    +1700
Christopher Bell #20    +2000
Kurt Busch #1    +2800
Matt DiBenedetto #21    +5500
Tyler Reddick #8    +5500
Austin Dillon #3    +6600
Aric Almirola #10    +7700
Ross Chastain #42    +7700
Chris Buescher #17    +12500
Daniel Suarez #99    +12500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #47    +12500

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook

The Prediction: (Kyle Busch +575)
One of the GOATs has heated up and now he’ll race on one of his favorite tracks.

Value Prediction: (Christopher Bell +2000)
The Gibbs drivers have started to post better results of late, so why not Bell in a setup that he’s performed well in all year. He is second and eighth in his last two races.

The Long Shot: (Ross Chastain +7700)
Going far down the board for a long-shot pick assuming some wet and wild conditions.

Propping up:

  1. Take Martin Truex Jr. #19 +180 for Top 3 Finish
  2. Take Kurt Busch #1 +300 for Top 5 Finish
  3. Take Over 7.5 Total Cautions at -160
  4. Driver H2H Match Up Take Alex Bowman #48 +100 over William Byron #24
  5. Long Shot Bets - Christopher Bell #20 Top 3 Finish +650

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* Tags
brad keselowski - kurt busch - kyle busch - kyle larson - new hampshire motor speedway

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