TNF Betting Odds & Liev Jackson Free Picks: Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
by Liev Jackson

Battle of 2-0s as Texans visit Patriots

TNF Betting Odds & Liev Jackson Free Picks: Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

Texans: 2-0-0 (0-0-0 V)
Patriots: 2-0-0 (1-0-0 H)
When: 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, September 22, 2016
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS, NFL Network

Will he or won’t he? And if he does what kind of shape will he be in? It’s the storyline that’s dominating this game as Jimmy Garoppolo went down in the second quarter of Sunday’s game versus the Dolphins with a shoulder injury. He didn’t return and ever since then the news on how severe the sprained throwing shoulder is keeps changing.

Currently he’s listed as doubtful and even Tom Brady came out and said that Julien Edelman will be the backup QB this week, but whispers are emerging that he may be pressed into service.

At the moment the keys to the engine likely lie with third round rookie Jacoby Brissett. In limited action versus the Dolphins he mostly handed off and threw one look short passes. But he still led the Pats to a touchdown on the way to a 31-24 victory.

And lost in the shuffle is that he is likely to have Rob Gronkowski making his season premiere and this is still an offence that’s averaged 414 YPG and 27 PPG.

With the unique situation that’s taken place in New England, Brissett likely has had almost no reps with the first teamers before this week due to getting two quarterbacks reps in training camp and now he’s playing on a short week. That likely means a grind it out affair from the Patriots point of view.

LeGarrette Blount is already fourth in the league in rushing attempts and fourth in yardage so those numbers are likely to grow.

And that is especially true against one of the most feared front sevens in the league. JJ Watt is rounding into form and now all that promise that accompanied Jadeveon Clowney, picked first overall three years ago is rounding into form.

As such the Texans in their games versus Chicago and Kansas City managed nine sacks and they have not allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters.

It’s easy to dismiss the Bears, but the Chiefs with Alex Smith at the helm were coming off their huge comeback versus the Chargers and they weren’t able to do much.

The 274.5 YPG allowed is third in the league and the 13 PPG also ranks third.

Offensively the Texans have had their problems as Lamar Miller is averaging just 3.8 YPC as the new running back and Brock Osweiler has a 79.2 passer rating and three interceptions. Their 21 PPG ranks 17th.

The good news is that he has been able to find his top two receivers with regularity as DeAndre Hopkins and rookie Will Fulmer have combined for 21-378-3 in two games.

That will put the spotlight on New England’s cornerbacks, Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan. Butler is playing with a nagging ankle injury and Ryan was torched with regularity in the second half of last week’s game.

The one caveat there is the Patriots were up 31-7 after the first drive of the third quarter and the defensive scheme was designed to give up short and medium yardage in order to run out the clock.

Bovada has the Texans listed as 1½-point favorites and the game's total is sitting at 40½ according to MyBookie.

On the NFL Football Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Texans are the Favorite at -135.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Early Odds & Betting Lines

Gm# Team
301 Houston
302 New England

Live Odds & Scores also our Free NFL Fantasy Picks

New England won its last outing, a 31-24 result against the Dolphins on September 18. The Patriots covered in that game as a -6-point favorite, while the 55 combined points took the game OVER the total.

The Texans were a 19-12 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Chiefs. They covered the +0-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (31) made winners of UNDER bettors.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Odds & Trends

Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games

New England:
New England is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
New England is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New England is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home

Next up:
Houston home to Tennessee Sunday, October 2
New England home to Buffalo Sunday, October 2

The result:
The Patriots (+1½) are home underdogs for the 16th time in the Brady-Belichick era: their record so far is 12-3. This is a team that has dominated the Texans (5-1 overall, 3-0 at home) and the entire AFC at home. Yes the quarterback is the most important player on the field, but there is no better team in recent NFL history at having a more complete 53 man roster. The Pick: Patriots 24-20.

Liev Jackson NFL Football Parlay Picks: New England +1½ & Over 40½ at Bovada

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alex smith - brock osweiler - deandre hopkins - houston texans - jacoby brissett - jadeveon clowney - jimmy garoppolo - jj watt - julien edelman - lamar miller

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