Baltimore Ravens At Cincinnati Bengals Afc Wild Card Jan 15 0037
Syndication The Enquirer
- Explore the historical NFL trends revealed by my NFL power rankings to find potential outcomes for the upcoming 2023-24 NFL season
- Discover the eight teams most likely to win Super Bowl 58, based on these trends
- Find out the chances of top contenders like the Chiefs, Bengals, or Eagles missing the NFL Playoffs this season
With less than two weeks until the kickoff of the 2023-24 NFL season, time is running out for bettors to wager on NFL futures markets in their current state. While NFL futures are available throughout the season, the odds will shift significantly once the games begin and we see how each of the 32 teams performs.
Keeping this in mind, I want to share two of the strongest NFL trends derived from my annual NFL power rankings. Since these power rankings are based purely on a formula with no subjectivity or opinion involved, we can analyze past seasons to gain insights into the upcoming year. Let’s delve into them!
Which Teams Are Favored to Win Super Bowl?
Over the past five seasons, a team ranked within the top eight in the power rankings has emerged as the Super Bowl champion. Here are the details:
- The Chiefs were ranked 6th in the power rankings last year and won Super Bowl 57
- The Rams were ranked 7th two years ago and won Super Bowl 56
- The Buccaneers were ranked 8th three years ago and won Super Bowl 55
- The Chiefs were ranked 4th four years ago and won Super Bowl 54
- The Patriots were ranked 1st five years ago and won Super Bowl 53
According to this NFL trend, there are only eight teams worth considering when betting on Super Bowl 58. Here are the top eight teams in my NFL power rankings, along with their Super Bowl odds.
Superbowl 58 Odds (2024)
Kansas City Chiefs +700
Philadelphia Eagles +900
San Francisco 49ers +850
Buffalo Bills +950
Cincinnati Bengals +800
New York Jets +1200
Dallas Cowboys +1600
Baltimore Ravens +1500
Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
If you already have a Super Bowl ticket with another team’s name on it, it may be time to consider it worthless. The above eight teams closely align with the top eight contenders in terms of Super Bowl odds. The only team missing from this group is the New York Jets, who currently have the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl. However, they rank ninth in my NFL power rankings, with the Jaguars securing their place in the top eight. Notably, the Jaguars have the longest odds at +3000.
It is important to note that I am not recommending placing a wager on each of these eight teams. Doing so would be neither responsible gambling nor an intelligent betting strategy. First, it is unwise to allocate eight units from your bankroll towards Super Bowl futures or any other futures bet. Second, if you were to pursue this strategy, you would lose money if either of two teams win. The combined payout for the Chiefs and Eagles will be less than the eight units you risked on all the teams.
Bet on a Top Contender to Miss the Playoffs
In seven of the last eight seasons, at least one team ranked within the top three in the power rankings has failed to make the playoffs. Last year, it was the third-ranked Rams who suffered. Let’s take a closer look at this trend:
- 2022: The third-ranked Rams, attempting to defend their Super Bowl championship, failed to make the playoffs
- 2021: No team from the top three missed the playoffs
- 2020: The third-ranked 49ers missed the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl
- 2019: The third-ranked Rams missed the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl
- 2018: The second-ranked Steelers missed the playoffs
- 2017: Both the second and third-ranked Seahawks and Cowboys missed the playoffs
- 2016: The second-ranked Panthers missed the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl
- 2015: The third-ranked Colts missed the playoffs
The only exception was in 2021 when all three teams – Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo – made it to the playoffs, with the Ravens, ranked fourth, being the team to miss out.
It seems to be a common theme that the third-ranked team is the one to miss the playoffs, which does not bode well for the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank third in my NFL power rankings for the 2023 season. There is also a trend of teams missing the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl, which is not favorable for Eagles fans and bettors.
2023 NFL Strength of Schedule for Every Team Calculated Properly
Here is a reminder of the top three teams in this year’s power rankings, along with their NFL playoff odds:
- Kansas City Chiefs (-450 to make the playoffs / +360 to miss the playoffs)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-255 to make / +215 to miss)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-500 to make / +400 to miss)
While it is highly unlikely that any of these three teams will miss the playoffs this season, we have witnessed a top contender falling short in seven of the last eight seasons. The reality is that staying competitive in the NFL is incredibly challenging, and injuries can disrupt a team’s performance.
While all three teams are currently ranked at the top in the power rankings for 2023 due to their successful seasons last year, which typically indicates good health, the team I would bet on to miss the playoffs is the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow is already dealing with injuries heading into the season, and the AFC North is known for its tough competition. Every team in the division – the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens – is expected to improve compared to last year.
