Alabama State (20-15) vs Auburn (28-5)
- When: Mar 20 2025, 2:50 PM
- Where: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Alabama State vs. Auburn – South Region First Round Preview
Spread: Auburn -32.5 | Total: 149.5
The No. 1 overall seed Auburn Tigers begin their NCAA Tournament journey on Thursday in Lexington, Kentucky, facing an Alabama State team that survived a thriller in the First Four. While the Hornets enter with momentum, Auburn boasts the firepower and depth to make this a lopsided affair.
Alabama State: Can the Underdogs Keep the Magic Alive?
Path to the First Round
Alabama State (20-15) punched its ticket with a dramatic 70-68 victory over St. Francis (Pa.) in the First Four. Amarr Knox’s last-second layup off a full-court deflection sealed the win, extending the Hornets’ winning streak to seven games and marking an 11-1 run in their last 12 contests.
While 16-seeds rarely find success against No. 1 seeds, history has shown that shocking upsets can happen. UMBC’s stunning victory over Virginia in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson’s 2023 shocker over Purdue prove that even the biggest underdogs have a chance.
Keys to Staying Competitive
Limiting Turnovers: Alabama State excels in ball security, averaging just 8.7 turnovers per game (7th in Division I). They must protect possessions against an Auburn defense capable of forcing mistakes.
Fast Start: The Hornets fell behind early against St. Francis, and a slow start against Auburn could put the game out of reach quickly.
Defensive Pressure: Alabama State locked in defensively late in their First Four win, and they’ll need to apply that intensity from the opening tip to slow Auburn’s explosive offense.
Prediction for Alabama State
The Hornets have been red-hot over the past month, but this is a major step up in competition. Alabama State may put up a fight early, but expect Auburn to wear them down over 40 minutes.
Auburn: Championship Aspirations Start Here
Path to the Tournament
Auburn (28-5) secured the No. 1 overall seed despite losing three of its last four games, including a 70-65 setback to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals.
While some questioned Auburn’s recent form, assistant coach Stephen Pearl dismissed concerns, pointing out that the Tigers went 7-3 over their last 10 games, all against top-tier competition.
Keys to Covering the Spread
Offensive Firepower: Auburn boasts one of the most balanced scoring attacks in the country, but their supporting cast must step up after struggling in recent outings.
Defensive Intensity: The Tigers thrive on pressuring opponents, and Alabama State’s lack of high-level experience could lead to turnovers and fast-break points for Auburn.
Quick Start: Auburn needs to come out aggressive, avoiding the kind of slow start that could give Alabama State confidence.
Prediction for Auburn
The Tigers are too deep, too talented, and too fast for Alabama State to handle. Expect Auburn to dominate from start to finish, cover the spread, and cruise into the second round.
Final Betting Take & Predictions:
Spread: Auburn -32.5 → The Tigers should control every aspect of this game.
Total: Under 149.5 → If Alabama State struggles to score, this could stay below the total.
Best Bet: Auburn 1H -19.5 → Look for Auburn to establish dominance early.
Auburn moves on with ease, setting up a second-round showdown with either Louisville or Creighton.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
