Alabama (23-7) at Auburn (27-3)
- When: Mar 8 2025, 2:30 PM
- Where: Neville Arena, Auburn, AL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Auburn vs. Alabama Betting Preview
Spread: Auburn -8.0 | Total: 177.5
The SEC regular season wraps up with a high-stakes showdown as No. 1 Auburn hosts No. 7 Alabama in a rivalry matchup with significant implications for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. While Auburn has already secured the SEC’s top seed, Alabama enters this one struggling and looking to avoid a third straight loss. Can the Crimson Tide bounce back, or will the Tigers sweep the season series?
Auburn Tigers: Looking to Secure a No. 1 Seed
Auburn (27-3, 15-2 SEC) has already locked up the SEC’s top spot, but Bruce Pearl’s squad still has plenty to play for. With the NCAA Tournament looming, a convincing win over a ranked rival could solidify Auburn as the No. 1 overall seed.
However, the Tigers showed vulnerability on Tuesday, falling 83-72 to Texas A&M in a game where they got bullied in the paint. Auburn struggled to match the Aggies’ physicality, a concerning sign heading into the postseason.
Johni Broome, a frontrunner for National Player of the Year, has been quieter than usual, scoring in single digits in back-to-back games. He’ll need to bounce back and re-establish himself in the post. Tahaad Pettiford stepped up in the loss, hitting six threes for a career-high 19 points, but the Tigers are hoping for a more balanced effort in this rematch with Alabama.
Auburn dominated the Crimson Tide in their first meeting on Feb. 15, winning 94-85 in Tuscaloosa. Broome was the difference-maker with 19 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists, and Auburn’s ability to control the boards could once again be the key factor.
Key Trends:
- Auburn is 11-4 ATS in SEC play this season.
- The Tigers are 14-1 straight up at home this year.
- The Over has hit in 5 of Auburn’s last 7 games.
Prediction for Auburn:
Auburn should dictate the tempo and control the glass, making it tough for Alabama to keep pace. The Tigers have been dominant at home, and with Broome likely to bounce back, they have a strong chance to cover.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Struggling at the Worst Time
Alabama (23-7, 12-5 SEC) was once in prime position for the SEC title, but the wheels have fallen off late in the season. The Crimson Tide have lost four of their last six, including back-to-back defeats against Florida and Tennessee, which eliminated them from the No. 2 seed race.
The latest setback was particularly troubling. Alabama had a four-point lead over Florida with 36 seconds left but completely collapsed, failing to score the rest of the way and allowing the Gators to steal a 99-94 win. Head coach Nate Oats was visibly frustrated, citing his team’s lack of energy and defensive lapses as key concerns.
Mark Sears has done everything he can to carry Alabama, averaging 28.0 points over the last five games, including three 30-point performances. However, he’s not getting enough support, and Alabama’s defensive issues have been costly.
The Crimson Tide struggled in their first meeting with Auburn, shooting just 42.3% from the field while getting dominated inside. If they want to pull off an upset, they’ll need to play much better in the paint and find a way to slow down the Tigers’ tempo.
Key Trends:
- Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
- The Crimson Tide are just 4-6 on the road in conference play.
- The Over has cashed in 4 of Alabama’s last 5 games.
Prediction for Alabama:
Alabama’s defense has been a major liability, and facing an elite Auburn offense on the road is a bad matchup. Unless they show serious improvement on that end, this could be another tough night.
Final Prediction & Best Bets
Auburn has been dominant at home and already proved they can handle Alabama’s fast-paced attack in their first matchup. The Crimson Tide’s struggles on defense, combined with their late-game collapses, make it hard to trust them here.
Best Bet: Auburn -8.0
The Tigers should control the boards and take advantage of Alabama’s defensive lapses.
Lean Over 177.5
Both teams push the tempo, and Alabama’s defensive struggles could lead to another high-scoring game.
Auburn looks poised to secure another statement win before heading into postseason play. Expect them to dictate the pace and cover at home.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
