Alabama (28-8) vs Duke (34-3)
- When: Mar 29 2025, 8:49 PM
- Where: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ, USA
- Where to watch: TBS/truTV
NCAA East Region Final Preview: Duke vs. Alabama
Spread: Duke -7.0 | Total: 174.5
Duke Blue Devils (34-3)
Defensive Edge & Flagg’s Brilliance Fueling the Run
Duke enters this Elite Eight showdown with all the momentum, riding the breakout brilliance of Cooper Flagg. The freshman phenom dropped 30 points, six rebounds, and seven assists in a high-octane 100-93 win over Arizona. That wasn’t just a scoring outburst — it was a statement. Now, Flagg is one win away from doing what Zion and Tatum couldn’t: take Duke to the Final Four in his lone season.
The Blue Devils’ defense will be key against Alabama’s run-and-gun offense. Duke holds opponents to just 62.5 points per game and 31% from beyond the arc — a sharp contrast to BYU’s soft perimeter D that got torched last round.
Guards Tyrese Proctor and Sion James anchor the perimeter, while rim protector Khaman Maluach is a game-changer inside. If Duke sticks to its defensive identity and maintains tempo control, they’ll be able to drag Alabama out of its comfort zone.
Player Prop Picks for Duke:
Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 Points – He’s in takeover mode.
Tyrese Proctor Over 4.5 Assists – Should facilitate against a weaker Alabama defense.
Malauch Over 1.5 Blocks – Interior presence will be critical.
Alabama Crimson Tide (28-8)
Volume Shooting & Veteran Firepower Keep Tide Dangerous
Alabama lit up the scoreboard in its Sweet 16 matchup, drilling 25 three-pointers en route to a 113-88 demolition of BYU. Mark Sears erupted for 10 threes and 41 points, finally snapping out of his 5-for-35 cold streak in epic fashion.
That kind of shooting won’t come easy against Duke’s elite defense, but the Tide have veteran weapons. Four of their five starters are fifth-year players, giving them a poise advantage in late-game moments. Sears has been a tournament staple, and he’s now just 17 points away from passing Larry Bird on the all-time Division I scoring list.
However, the Tide’s glaring weakness is defense. They rank 347th in points allowed, giving up over 81 per game. In a battle of styles, their tempo and spacing will test Duke — but can they stop the Blue Devils even once?
Player Prop Picks for Alabama:
Mark Sears Over 3.5 Threes Made – He’s hot and confident.
Grant Nelson Over 12.5 Points – Should see looks in transition.
Clifford Omoruyi Over 7.5 Rebounds – Will need to bang inside vs. Maluach.
Betting Prediction & Final Thoughts
This one sets up as a battle of pace vs. precision. Alabama wants chaos, volume threes, and a breakneck tempo. Duke wants discipline, lockdown defense, and Flagg to continue his historic run. In the end, defense travels in March, and Duke has enough firepower of their own to keep pace while making critical stops.
Pick: Duke -7.0
Total: Under 174.5
Score Prediction: Duke 87, Alabama 77
Flagg inches closer to Final Four history — and the Blue Devils cover as favorites.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
