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Alabama (11-3) at Indiana (13-0)
- When: Jan 1 2026, 4:00 PM
- Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(9) Alabama vs (1) Indiana Preview & Prediction
Spread: Indiana -7.0
Moneyline: Indiana (-235)
Total: 48.0
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Outlook
Indiana arrives in Pasadena wearing the unfamiliar label of playoff powerhouse. The Hoosiers are a perfect 13- 0, the top seed in the College Football Playoff, and a touchdown favorite in one of the sport’s most iconic venues. This run is not smoke and mirrors. Indiana has dominated with balance, toughness, and efficiency on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been the engine, combining poise with explosiveness. He protects the football, stretches defenses vertically, and adds value with his legs when plays break down. Indiana’s real edge, however, lives in the trenches. The Hoosiers pound opponents on the ground, ranking among the nation’s elite in rushing production. That physical identity shortens games and keeps pressure off Mendoza in high leverage moments.
Getting top receiver Omar Cooper Jr. back is a major boost. His return restores Indiana’s downfield threat and forces Alabama to defend the entire field. Defensively, the Hoosiers have consistently controlled tempo, rarely allowing teams to dictate pace or find rhythm early.
From a betting perspective, Indiana’s ability to run the ball and control possession makes them a dangerous favorite. Playing from ahead is their comfort zone.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Outlook
Alabama enters the Rose Bowl as the underdog, a role that rarely feels natural for a program built on championships. The Crimson Tide earned their way here with an impressive road win over Oklahoma, and they remain dangerous thanks to elite defensive structure and playoff experience.
Quarterback Ty Simpson steadied the offense in the opening round, rebounding from a shaky finish to the regular season. When Alabama stays on schedule and avoids long yardage situations, the offense can move efficiently. The problem has been consistency in the run game. Alabama has struggled to generate push up front, leaving too much pressure on Simpson to create through the air.
Defensively, Alabama still travels well. The Tide limit passing efficiency and now get edge rusher LT Overton back, which strengthens their pass rush rotation. If Alabama is going to hang around, it will come from forcing Indiana into uncomfortable third downs and winning field position.
Historically, Alabama thrives in big moments, but this matchup demands discipline and physical resistance against a team built to grind.
Betting Outlook and Prediction Lean
Indiana’s rushing advantage and overall balance are the difference in this matchup. Alabama’s defense keeps things competitive early, but sustained drives and depth favor the Hoosiers late but The Tide covers.
Final Score: Indiana 27, Alabama 23
Lean: Alabama +7.0
Total: Over 48.0
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
