Alabama (14-3) at Kentucky (14-3)
- When: Jan 18 2025, 12:00 PM
- Where: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
The No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats, coming off a string of impressive performances, are set to face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in a highly anticipated SEC showdown on Saturday in Lexington. Kentucky is favored by 2.5 points, with the total set at a lofty 178.5, reflecting the offensive firepower of both teams.
Kentucky (14-3, 3-1 SEC) is on a roll, boasting a flawless 5-0 record against top-15 opponents this season. The Wildcats recently took down then-No. 14 Mississippi State 95-90 on the road and followed it with an 81-69 victory over No. 11 Texas A&M at home. Their high-paced offense, averaging 88.7 points per game, is led by Jaxson Robinson, who is heating up at the right time. Robinson dropped 27 points against Mississippi State and added 22 against Texas A&M, including a combined 12 three-pointers in those games.
On the other side, Alabama (14-3, 3-1 SEC) is coming off a surprising 74-64 home loss to No. 21 Ole Miss, ending an eight-game winning streak. Despite leading the nation in scoring with 89.5 points per game, the Crimson Tide struggled against Ole Miss with 21 turnovers and just 25% shooting from beyond the arc. Coach Nate Oats expressed concerns about his team’s shot selection and lack of aggression, issues they’ll need to address quickly against a confident Kentucky squad.
Matchup Breakdown:
Kentucky’s Momentum: The Wildcats are firing on all cylinders, with Robinson’s sharp shooting providing a significant boost. Otega Oweh (15.4 PPG) and Lamont Butler (13.4 PPG) add depth to their scoring attack, while the team thrives on its home-court advantage, holding a dominant 60-11 record against Alabama in Lexington.
Alabama’s Offensive Firepower: Despite a hiccup against Ole Miss, Alabama remains a dangerous team with Mark Sears (18.6 PPG) and Grant Nelson (12.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG) leading the way. Their ability to push the tempo will challenge Kentucky’s defense, but they must clean up turnovers and improve their perimeter shooting to compete in this one.
Key Trends:
Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against ranked teams.
Alabama is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games against Kentucky.
The total has gone over in 7 of Kentucky’s last 10 home games, suggesting a high-scoring affair.
Betting Predictions:
Spread: Kentucky -2.5. The Wildcats are red-hot, and their home-court dominance makes them a strong play against an Alabama team that looked shaky in its last outing.
Total: Over 178.5. Both teams rank among the top three nationally in scoring, and their fast-paced styles should push the total past this high mark.
Player Props:
Jaxson Robinson Over 20.5 Points: Robinson’s recent shooting form makes this a solid bet.
Mark Sears Over 2.5 Three-Pointers: Sears will need to deliver from deep for Alabama to stay competitive.
Final Score Prediction:
Kentucky 92, Alabama 87
Look for the Wildcats to capitalize on Alabama’s defensive lapses and continue their streak of top-15 wins. The game’s high pace and offensive talent on both sides should make for an exciting, high-scoring contest.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
