Alabama (17-3) at Mississippi State (16-4)
- When: Jan 29 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS, USA
- Where to watch: SECN
Game Preview
A high-stakes SEC showdown is set for Wednesday night as No. 4 Alabama travels to Starkville to face No. 14 Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide are in pursuit of their 12th win in 13 games, while the Bulldogs are looking to rebound from a rough stretch against ranked opponents. With Mississippi State favored by a single point and the total set at 165.0, let’s break down the best betting angles for this game.
Alabama Crimson Tide Analysis
Alabama enters this matchup just a half-game behind No. 1 Auburn in the SEC standings, having reeled off impressive wins over Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and LSU in its last three outings. Despite their offensive firepower, the Crimson Tide had to grind out their latest win against LSU, securing an 80-73 victory even with leading scorer Mark Sears going scoreless for the second time this season.
Sears, who averages 18.1 points per game, was benched for the second half after missing all five of his shot attempts in the first. Alabama head coach Nate Oats made it clear that playing time would be dictated by performance, and the move paid off, as the Tide’s defense tightened up in the second half.
Aden Holloway has stepped up recently, averaging 15.4 points over his last nine games, including 19 points off the bench against LSU. Meanwhile, veteran transfer Chris Youngblood made his first start of the season and contributed 13 points and five rebounds. Alabama has plenty of scoring depth, but their defensive consistency will be key against a Bulldogs team that can slow the tempo and force tough shots.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Analysis
Mississippi State is coming off a hard-fought 65-60 overtime win at South Carolina, a game in which they blew a 14-point lead in the final nine minutes before escaping with the victory. The Bulldogs struggled offensively, hitting just 6-of-26 from three-point range (23.1%) and getting out-rebounded 45-30.
Josh Hubbard, who leads the team with a 16.3 scoring average, has been in a shooting slump, making just 25.9% (21-of-81) of his shots over the past six games. However, Riley Kugel has been a reliable spark off the bench, averaging 16 points over his last three games, including 15 in the win over South Carolina.
Mississippi State’s biggest strength is its ability to slow the pace and control possessions, something Alabama thrives on disrupting. The Bulldogs need to clean up their rebounding issues and limit turnovers (17 against South Carolina) to avoid giving Alabama extra scoring opportunities.
Key Matchups & Betting Trends
Alabama’s High-Powered Offense vs. Mississippi State’s Defense: The Crimson Tide love to push the pace, but Mississippi State will look to grind the game down into a half-court battle.
Three-Point Shooting Disparity: Alabama is one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the country, while Mississippi State struggled at just 23.1% in their last game.
Head-to-Head Dominance: Alabama has won the last six matchups and nine of the past 10 meetings.
Betting Predictions
This game will be a battle of contrasting styles, with Alabama looking to speed things up and Mississippi State trying to slow it down. Given the Bulldogs’ struggles from beyond the arc and their recent turnover issues, Alabama’s ability to create transition opportunities could be the difference.
With the Crimson Tide having dominated this series in recent years and proving they can win even when their best player struggles, taking Alabama (+105) provides great value. The total at 165.0 is high, but with Alabama’s fast-paced attack and Mississippi State’s inconsistency on offense, the Under 165.0 seems like the safer play.
Best Bets:
Alabama (+105) Moneyline (Alabama’s offensive firepower and recent head-to-head dominance make them the better bet.)
Under 165.0 (Mississippi State’s slower tempo and recent offensive struggles could keep the total in check.)
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 81, Mississippi State 78
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
