Alabama (21-4) at Missouri (19-6)
- When: Feb 19 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO, USA
- Where to watch: SEC Network
Game Preview
Missouri Favored by 1.5 | Total Set at 171.5
With March Madness around the corner, every game matters, and Wednesday night brings an electrifying SEC showdown between No. 4 Alabama and No. 15 Missouri. Both teams boast high-powered offenses, but while Alabama looks to bounce back from a tough loss, Missouri is defending its near-perfect home record.
Alabama Crimson Tide Outlook
Alabama (21-4, 10-2 SEC) had a golden opportunity to claim the No. 1 spot in the country but fell short in a 94-85 loss to Auburn last Saturday. Head coach Nate Oats made it clear he expects more from his team, particularly star guard Mark Sears.
Sears struggled in the loss, going 4-for-17 from the field, including 2-of-11 from beyond the arc. While he leads the Crimson Tide in scoring at 17.8 points per game, his shooting efficiency (39.7% FG, 34.5% 3PT) has dipped compared to last season. Oats has also expressed concerns about Sears’ defensive intensity and ability to create for others, stating that the team needs him to be more than just a scorer.
The Crimson Tide have thrived offensively this season, leading the SEC in scoring at 90.3 points per game. However, defensive lapses and inconsistency in key moments have been a concern. Alabama now faces the challenge of responding to an emotionally draining loss, heading into a tough road environment where Missouri is nearly unbeatable.
Missouri Tigers Outlook
Missouri (19-6, 8-4 SEC) enters this game with momentum, having dismantled Oklahoma 82-58 at home before picking up an 87-74 road win over Georgia. The Tigers have been dominant at home, sporting a 16-1 record at Mizzou Arena, making them a serious threat to hand Alabama another tough loss.
This season has been a major turnaround for Missouri, which went 0-18 in conference play last year. Rather than proving doubters wrong, the Tigers are focused on proving themselves right, as guard Tamar Bates put it. Bates leads Missouri’s balanced offense, averaging 13.4 points per game. Forward Mark Mitchell contributes 12.9 points and 4.7 rebounds, while sharpshooter Caleb Grill has been lights out from deep, hitting 46.7% of his three-point attempts off the bench.
Missouri’s ability to share the ball and take care of possessions has been key to its success. In their win over Georgia, the Tigers recorded 18 assists to just three turnovers while also winning the rebounding battle. Head coach Dennis Gates praised his team’s ability to control the second half, where they put up 49 points to pull away.
Betting Prediction & Props
Spread Pick: Missouri -1.5
Missouri’s home dominance cannot be ignored. The Tigers are 16-1 at home this season and have the momentum coming off two dominant wins. Alabama’s road defense has been shaky, and if Sears has another inefficient shooting night, it could spell trouble for the Crimson Tide.
Total Pick: Over 171.5
Both teams love to push the pace, and this matchup features two of the highest-scoring teams in the SEC. Alabama ranks first in scoring, while Missouri isn’t far behind at 82.6 points per game. With both teams capable of lighting up the scoreboard, expect a shootout.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Missouri Team Total Over 84.5 – The Tigers have been excellent at home and should continue to thrive offensively against Alabama’s vulnerable defense.
Mark Sears Points Under – Coming off a rough outing and facing a Missouri defense that has been strong in SEC play, Sears could struggle to hit his usual numbers.
Caleb Grill Made Threes Over – Shooting nearly 47% from deep, Grill has been a major spark off the bench and will be a key weapon against Alabama’s perimeter defense.
Missouri is in prime position to defend its home court and secure a signature win, while Alabama faces another test of resilience. Expect an intense, high-scoring battle with the Tigers coming out on top.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
