Alabama (13-2) at Texas A&M (13-2)
- When: Jan 11 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Reed Arena, College Station, TX, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Alabama heads into Saturday’s showdown as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at a lofty 159.5. Both the Crimson Tide and Texas A&M Aggies sit at 13-2 overall and 2-0 in SEC play, but their contrasting playing styles set the stage for an intriguing battle in College Station.
Game Preview & Betting Analysis
Alabama enters this matchup riding a seven-game winning streak, including an 88-68 road win over South Carolina on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Texas A&M had to claw their way back to beat No. 17 Oklahoma 80-78, rallying without their leading scorer Wade Taylor IV, who sat out with an undisclosed thigh injury.
Key Matchups and Storylines
Alabama’s High-Octane Offense: The Crimson Tide’s offensive approach revolves around aggressive 3-point shooting and relentless drives to the basket. Alabama’s ability to spread the floor forces defenses to pick their poison. In their win over South Carolina, Mark Sears led the way with 22 points, while Aden Holloway and Clifford Omoruyi chipped in 13 and 10, respectively.
Defensive Resilience: Alabama coach Nate Oats emphasized his team’s improved defensive intensity: “We’ve struggled with slow starts, but this time we kept the pressure on for the full 40 minutes.” That defensive focus will be crucial as they face an Aggies team that showed resilience by coming back from an 18-point deficit against Oklahoma.
Texas A&M’s X-Factor: Zhuric Phelps was the hero for the Aggies in their win over Oklahoma, scoring a career-high 34 points and sinking the game-winning 3-pointer with just 19.6 seconds left. Phelps scored 28 of those points in the second half and went 6-for-6 from beyond the arc. With Taylor’s status uncertain, Phelps may need to step up once again.
Betting Predictions
Spread Pick (-3.5): Alabama’s depth and ability to blow past teams with their pace and perimeter shooting make them the stronger bet to cover the spread. The Crimson Tide have won their last four games by an average margin of 24.5 points, demonstrating their dominance against both conference and non-conference opponents.
Total Pick (159.5): The high total reflects both teams’ offensive capabilities, but if Alabama’s defense remains locked in and A&M struggles to replicate their second-half heroics without Taylor, the under becomes an attractive option. That said, if Taylor plays, the over is certainly in play given the Aggies’ ability to score in transition.
Prop Bets to Watch:
Mark Sears over 19.5 points: Sears has been Alabama’s most consistent scoring threat and should thrive against A&M’s defense.
Zhuric Phelps over 3.5 made 3-pointers: If Phelps is hot from beyond the arc like he was against Oklahoma, this prop offers strong value.
Alabama team total over 80.5 points: The Crimson Tide’s offensive pace makes this a reasonable expectation, especially if they dominate from long range.
Final Score Prediction:
Alabama 85, Texas A&M 78. The Crimson Tide’s ability to spread the floor and hit big shots should give them the edge, especially if Wade Taylor remains sidelined. Expect the Aggies to stay competitive with their physical play, but Alabama’s firepower and recent form make them the stronger bet to cover and secure a key conference win.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
