The NFL season is reaching the end of the opening quarter, and the standings are starting to shape up. In Week 4, the favorites had a solid showing, going 9-7 straight up and against the spread (ATS). However, it wasn’t a great week for us as we went 1-2 on our picks, bringing our season record to 5-4 ATS. There were a few surprising outcomes, including the Ravens losing as heavy 8-point favorites and the Titans getting crushed by the Browns and failing to cover the 3.5-point spread. While the Bengals won as 2-point favorites, many bettors ended up with a push due to the closing line at 3 points. It’s important to note that getting a better price earlier in the week can greatly increase our chances against the bookies.
Before we dive into Week 4, let’s take a look at the major storylines from Week 3. The Falcons, who had been performing well, suffered a loss to the Lions, highlighting Detroit’s strength in the NFC North. The Chargers managed to avoid going 0-3 by defeating the Vikings, but lost Mike Williams for the rest of the season. Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers showed great resilience by overcoming a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win against the Saints. The Texans surprised everyone with a victory over the Jaguars, raising concerns about Jacksonville’s performance. The Dolphins had a massive offensive showing, scoring 10 touchdowns against the Broncos, putting head coach Sean Payton on the hot seat. The Bills, after a disappointing loss to the Jets, bounced back with back-to-back blowout wins. The Colts pulled off an upset against the Ravens with the help of Matt Gay’s four 50+ field goals. Taylor Swift was in attendance to watch Travis Kelce dominate the Bears in a cakewalk victory. The Cowboys suffered a big loss to the Cardinals, exposing some issues with their performance.
In Week 4, we have an exciting lineup with 11 out of the 16 spreads coming in at 3.5 points or shorter. Close matchups like these provide great opportunities to make money against the spread, and it’s crucial to lock in the best number early in the week. Let’s analyze three games for this week:
Game 1: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Opening Line: Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
The Dolphins have shown an impressive ability to score, especially with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa leading the offense. They have scored the most points in the league, including their astounding 70-point performance against the Broncos in Week 3. However, they face their toughest defensive test yet against the Bills, who have only given up 13 points in their two victories this season. While the Bills’ offense often steals the spotlight, their defense is equally strong, making them one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball. In this game, we can expect a high-scoring affair, and the Dolphins, with 2.5 points in their favor, have a good chance to cover the spread and potentially win the game outright. It would be unwise to lay points against a dynamic offense like the Dolphins. Although the Bills will likely have offensive success of their own, this could be a turning point in the AFC East, with the Dolphins surpassing the Bills. The Dolphins’ offensive line should hold up well against the Bills’ pass rush, giving Tagovailoa enough time to connect with his talented receivers.
Pick: Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Game 2: Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
The Steelers had a rough start to the season, but their defense has been exceptional, especially with the addition of defensive touchdowns in recent weeks. Their offense also came alive in their victory against the Raiders in Week 3. Facing the Texans, a team in the early stages of developing a winning mentality, the Steelers’ strong defense and improved offensive scheme will be enough to secure a win and cover the spread. The Texans’ rookie quarterback, CJ Stroud, had a decent Week 3 with his first win of the season against the Jaguars, but he will face a much tougher challenge against the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense ranks high in almost every category, and their consistency under coach Mike Tomlin will be a significant factor. Stroud, when pressured, tends to make rookie mistakes, and the Steelers are likely to capitalize on those errors with at least one defensive touchdown. It’s crucial to secure the Steelers’ spread at -3, as avoiding the common NFL score difference of -3.5 is important.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Game 3, Monday Night Football: Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Opening Line: New York Giants (-1.5)
In this matchup, the favorite designation seems to be misplaced. The Giants have struggled in their first two primetime games, losing by wide margins. Quarterback Daniel Jones has not been performing well, throwing three interceptions without a single touchdown. While they managed a comeback win against the Cardinals, they will face a tough challenge from Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Smith, despite a slow start, is proving to be a capable quarterback, and his growing chemistry with running back Kenneth Walker III has led to high-scoring games for the Seahawks. When the Giants’ running game is shut down, they struggle to put up points, especially in primetime. Head coach Pete Carroll thrives in these situations, and the only reason the line isn’t heavily favoring the Seahawks is home-field advantage for the Giants. This is a game where we can expect a reversal of the line by game time.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)
