Arizona (17-8) at Baylor (16-9)
- When: Feb 17 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Preview
Baylor is favored by 1.5 | Total set at 153.5
A showdown between two preseason top-10 teams takes center stage Monday night as Baylor hosts Arizona in Waco. Both programs have had their share of ups and downs this season, but they remain in the NCAA Tournament mix. Arizona took the first meeting convincingly in January, but Baylor will look to defend its home court, where they’ve been dominant all year.
Arizona Wildcats: Seeking a Bounce-Back Performance
The Wildcats (17-8, 11-3 Big 12) have hit a rough patch, dropping back-to-back games against Kansas State and No. 6 Houston. A primary issue has been their struggles from beyond the arc, shooting just 2-of-22 (9.1%) against Kansas State and 5-of-23 (21.7%) against Houston.
Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd knows the road ahead isn’t easy but is eager to see how his team responds.
“You guys think we’re going to get our (tails) kicked at Baylor because we’re tired, we’ve been on a long stretch,” Lloyd said. “Let’s see what team shows up. We might, but we might not. I want to see what we have. I want to see what our guys are made of.”
Despite their shooting woes, the Wildcats still boast one of the most efficient offenses in the Big 12, averaging 81.3 points per game—third in the conference. Caleb Love continues to lead the way with 15.9 PPG, but his struggles from deep (30.1% on threes) have been costly, including a dismal 2-of-21 (9.5%) over the past three games.
Arizona already handled Baylor 81-70 at home in January, but their recent form makes this a much tougher challenge. They’ll need to clean up their shooting if they hope to secure a season sweep.
Baylor Bears: Protecting Home Court
Baylor (16-9, 8-6 Big 12) remains a dangerous team despite inconsistencies in Big 12 play. The Bears have alternated wins and losses over their past seven games but are coming off a gritty 74-71 overtime win over West Virginia on Saturday.
Norchad Omier has been a rock for Baylor, recording his 13th double-double of the season with 17 points and 10 rebounds in the victory. He leads the team in both scoring (15.7 PPG) and rebounding (10.2 RPG), providing an interior presence that could exploit Arizona’s recent struggles.
Baylor’s depth has also played a key role, with contributions from Jeremy Roach and Jalen Celestine.
“Everybody plays a part,” Omier said. “Jeremy coming off the bench, that’s a great lift. Jalen’s 3-point shooting opens up the court. It’s a blessing to have almost everybody on the court.”
Statistically, Baylor and Arizona are evenly matched. The Bears average 79.1 PPG (fifth in the Big 12), while Arizona ranks slightly higher at 81.3 PPG. However, both teams have struggled defensively, with Baylor allowing 69.9 PPG (10th in the Big 12) and Arizona giving up 69.5 PPG (9th in the conference).
Betting Prediction and Best Bets
This matchup is shaping up to be a tight contest, but Baylor’s 12-1 home record could be the deciding factor. Arizona has struggled on the road, and their poor shooting could continue to plague them in a hostile environment.
Prediction: Baylor 78, Arizona 74
Best Bet: Baylor -1.5
Bonus Bet: Under 153.5
Prop Play: Norchad Omier Over 10.5 Rebounds
Baylor has been far more reliable at home, and Arizona’s recent shooting slump makes them a risky bet in this spot. Expect the Bears to grind out a close win and cover the spread.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
