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Arizona (25-2) vs Baylor (14-13)
- When: Feb 24 2026, 9:00 PM
- Where: Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN2
(2) Arizona vs Baylor Preview & Prediction
Spread: Arizona -8.5
Moneyline: Arizona (-455)
Total: 154.5
Right then, let’s break this one down properly.
No. 2 Arizona stroll into Waco laying 8.5 points, with the total sitting at 154.5. On paper it looks straightforward. In reality, it’s layered, and that’s where the value hides.
Arizona Wildcats: Big 12’s Pace-Setting Machine
Arizona arrive in Texas in prime position for the Big 12 crown. At 25-2 overall and 12-2 in conference play, they’ve just taken down BYU and Houston in consecutive ranked matchups. That win at Houston was not decorative. It was a statement.
Tommy Lloyd’s side are the most explosive offense in the league, averaging 87.2 points per game. They lead the conference in field goal percentage at 50.4% and dominate the glass with 43.4 rebounds per contest. That combination travels well.
Anthony Dell’Orso has found his groove at the perfect time, pouring in 22 points in back-to-back games. Jaden Bradley chipped in 17 against Houston, while Ivan Kharchenkov added 16 points and nine boards. Arizona are not one-dimensional. They’re layered and balanced.
Then there’s Brayden Burries. He may not always headline, but in games like this his usage rises when Arizona attack mismatches. Baylor’s perimeter defense has been inconsistent, and Burries has the green light in transition.
Player Prop Pick – Brayden Burries Over 17.5 Points – With Arizona pushing tempo and Baylor allowing 82.6 points per game, Burries should see volume and clean looks in a game that profiles as high-paced.
Arizona are 7-1 on the road. They do not flinch outside Tucson.
Baylor Bears: Dangerous at Home, Flawed in Execution
Baylor sit at 14-13 overall and 4-10 in Big 12 play. It has not been the season they envisioned. Yet they still score 82.6 points per game and shoot 47.8% from the floor. They are capable, just not consistent.
Tounde Yessoufou remains their most dynamic scoring threat. He had 16 in the win over Arizona State, and when he’s aggressive early, Baylor’s confidence grows with him. Obi Agbim closed that game brilliantly, but the Bears still struggle defensively against elite offenses.
Baylor are 10-5 at home. That’s important. They feed off the energy in Waco. But defensively, they haven’t consistently handled teams that rebound and score inside the way Arizona do.
Player Prop Pick – Tounde Yessoufou Over 16.5 Points – Arizona play fast, which inflates possessions. If Baylor keep this remotely competitive, Yessoufou will need to carry the scoring load and likely push toward 18-plus.
Betting Outlook & Prediction
Arizona are laying 8.5. The number is justified. They’re superior in efficiency, rebounding, and depth. Baylor’s offense will score enough to push pace, which supports the total at 154.5 leaning Over.
Arizona’s offensive balance and road composure should wear Baylor down late.
As always, it’s not about who’s better. It’s about who performs relative to the number. And here, the Wildcats still offer value.
Final Score: Arizona 88, Baylor 76
Lean: Arizona -8.5
Total: Over 154.5
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
