Arizona (24-12) vs Duke (33-3)
- When: Mar 27 2025, 9:39 PM
- Where: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Duke vs. Arizona – Sweet 16 Betting Preview, Predictions & Breakdown
Spread: Duke -9.5 | Total: 154.5
Duke Blue Devils Outlook:
The top-seeded Blue Devils are playing their best ball at the perfect time. With dominant wins over Mount St. Mary’s (93-49) and Baylor (89-66), Duke has looked every bit the juggernaut its seed suggests. Led by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, who dropped 24 points and added three blocks in their November win over Arizona, Duke continues to be elite on both ends of the court.
Duke boasts the nation’s No. 1-rated offense and No. 4 defense per KenPom. Their three-point shooting, transition game, and rim protection have suffocated opponents throughout the tournament. With Flagg, Sion James, and Kon Knueppel continuing to click, the Blue Devils are tough to fade.
A key storyline is the status of defensive enforcer Maliq Brown. He’s day-to-day, and his presence could be critical against Arizona’s versatile wings.
Arizona Wildcats Outlook:
Fourth-seeded Arizona enters this matchup with experience and momentum. Caleb Love – infamous in Duke circles for his Final Four dagger with UNC in 2022 – gets yet another crack at the Blue Devils, this time in Wildcat red. Love is fresh off a 29-point, 9-rebound effort against Oregon, and he’ll need another massive showing if Arizona is going to keep pace.
Arizona has averaged 90 points per game in the tournament so far and plays with tempo. While their roster has changed since the earlier season loss to Duke, their ability to stretch the floor and score in bunches remains intact. Tobe Awaka and Henri Veesaar will need to hold their own inside to give Love and the backcourt room to operate.
Experience is Arizona’s X-factor — this is their third Sweet 16 appearance under Tommy Lloyd, and players like Love and Trey Townsend bring tournament pedigree.
Betting Trends & Prediction:
Duke has covered in both tournament games, winning each by 20+ points.
Arizona has been explosive offensively but shaky defensively, allowing 83 to Oregon.
The earlier season meeting ended in a 14-point Duke win, and the Blue Devils have only improved since.
Best Bet: Duke -9.5
Duke’s balance of high-octane offense and elite defense should prove too much for Arizona, especially with Flagg in full takeover mode. Expect Duke to gradually wear down the Wildcats and pull away late.
Score Prediction: Duke 81, Arizona 70
Lean: Under 154.5 – The pace might slow down late with Duke locking in defensively.
Player Props to Watch:
Cooper Flagg Over Points & Blocks: He’s been everywhere on the court and will be the key to both Duke’s offense and rim protection.
Caleb Love Over Points: He’s going to take 15-20 shots. If Arizona hangs around, he’ll be the reason.
Duke moves on, Arizona bows out, and Caleb Love faces Duke one final time — but this time, the Blue Devils get the last word.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
