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Arizona (9-3) at SMU (8-4)
- When: Jan 2 2026, 8:00 PM
- Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
- Where to watch: FOX
(17) Arizona vs SMU Preview & Prediction
Spread: SMU -1.0
Moneyline: SMU (-115)
Total: 52.0
Arizona Wildcats Betting Outlook
Arizona arrives in San Diego playing its best football of the season, riding a five game winning streak that includes multiple road victories against ranked opponents. This team looks fully bought in, with bowl season viewed as an extension rather than a consolation. Momentum matters in late December, and the Wildcats have plenty of it.
Quarterback Noah Fifita has been the steady hand behind Arizona’s surge. He throws with confidence, protects the football, and thrives against pressure looks. His chemistry with the receiving corps has grown each week, and he rarely puts the defense in bad positions. Arizona’s biggest strength remains its elite pass defense, which has frustrated opposing quarterbacks all season by limiting explosive plays and forcing long drives.
Defensively, the Wildcats excel at disguising coverage and closing throwing windows. That discipline gives Arizona a real chance to slow down a high volume passing attack like SMU’s.
Arizona Player Prop Pick: Noah Fifita over 253.5 passing yards – Arizona will need balance, but Fifita’s efficiency and game script suggest steady production through the air.
SMU Mustangs Betting Outlook
SMU enters the Holiday Bowl with stability at quarterback and minimal roster disruption, which is a luxury in the current bowl landscape. Kevin Jennings returning for another season sent a clear message that the Mustangs remain invested, and his leadership sets the tone.
Jennings operates one of the most productive passing offenses in the country, thriving in tempo driven schemes that attack vertically and horizontally. He spreads the ball well and rarely forces throws, making SMU dangerous if it finds early rhythm. However, this matchup presents a serious test against one of the nation’s best pass defenses.
The Mustangs’ secondary is opportunistic, led by ball hawks who can flip momentum quickly. If SMU can generate one or two takeaways, that could tilt a tight game in their favor.
SMU Player Prop Pick: Kevin Jennings over 1.5 passing touchdowns -Red zone efficiency and volume give him multiple scoring chances.
Expert Prediction & Betting Angle
This matchup shapes up as a classic strength on strength battle, with SMU’s passing volume clashing against Arizona’s coverage discipline. Arizona’s current form and defensive reliability give them a slight edge, especially in a near pickem spread. Expect a competitive game with late possessions deciding the outcome.
Final Score: Arizona 27, SMU 24
Lean: Arizona ML (-106)
Total: Under 52.0
- NCAA Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
