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Arkansas (21-7) vs Florida (22-6)
- When: Feb 28 2026, 8:30 PM
- Where: Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(20) Arkansas vs (7) Florida Preview & Prediction
Spread: Florida -11.0
Moneyline: Florida (-667)
Total: 169.5
Right then, we have ourselves a proper Southeastern Conference affair in Gainesville. Florida enters as a 11 point favourite with a towering total of 169.0, which tells you immediately this is expected to be played at full throttle.
Let us break it down sensibly, with both the head and the wallet in mind.
Florida Gators Betting Breakdown
Florida at 22 and 6 overall and 13 and 2 in league play are not merely chasing a title share. They are imposing themselves on this conference. Eight straight victories since the loss to Auburn have been delivered with authority, including wins over ranked Alabama and Kentucky. Seven of their last eight have been by double figures.
This side does not simply win. They suffocate you late.
Todd Golden’s club thrives on wearing teams down. Against Texas they trailed before finishing on a 23 to 7 surge. That is not a coincidence. It is conditioning, rebounding dominance and discipline.
The frontcourt is monstrous. Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Ruben Chinyelu combine for 42.5 points and 25.3 rebounds per game. Florida leads Division I in rebound margin at plus 14.1. Chinyelu alone pulls down 11.5 per contest. When you control the glass like that, covering 11 becomes far less daunting.
Boogie Fland adds 11.5 points and 3.4 assists, but this team’s identity is physicality and late game composure.
From a betting standpoint, laying 11 at home with a side that consistently closes games on extended runs is appealing.
Player Prop Pick: Thomas Haugh over 14.5 points – Haugh’s versatility inside against Arkansas’ perimeter heavy attack should shine. With Florida dominating the paint, his scoring opportunities should be plentiful.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Breakdown
Arkansas at 21 and 7 and 11 and 4 in conference play are not to be dismissed. They average 90.3 points per game, fourth in Division I, and they do it with elite perimeter talent.
Darius Acuff Jr. is the headline act. He averages 22.2 points and 6.2 assists, the only player in Division I hitting both marks. He is fearless late, as evidenced by his 22 point effort against Texas A&M, 17 coming in the final nine minutes. That is a player who embraces pressure.
Meleek Thomas contributes 15.2 points, and Billy Richmond III has scored at least 20 in four straight games. This trio can light up the scoreboard in a hurry.
The issue, however, is rebounding and interior defence. Against Florida’s size and discipline, second chance points may tilt the margin.
Player Prop Pick: Darius Acuff Jr. over 21.5 points – Acuff’s usage rate and late game aggression make him difficult to quiet completely. Expect volume and shot attempts regardless of game script.Expert Final Score Prediction
The total of 169.5 suggests pace and scoring, and Arkansas will attempt to run. Yet Florida’s rebounding edge and ability to grind opponents down should dictate the second half.
Lay the 11.0 with Florida. Their dominance on the glass and late game execution should see them pull clear and cover comfortably.
Final Score: Florida 88, Arkansas 75
Lean: Florida -11.0
Total: Under169.0
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
