Arkansas (21-13) vs St. John’s (31-4)
- When: Mar 22 2025, 2:40 PM
- Where: Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
March Madness Betting Preview: St. John’s vs. Arkansas
Spread: St. John’s -7.5 | Total: 145.0
Region: West (Second Round)
St. John’s Red Storm (31-4 SU, 22-13 ATS)
Seed: No. 2 | Conference: Big East
St. John’s enters Saturday’s showdown riding a red-hot 10-game winning streak, dominating Omaha 83-53 in the first round and making a loud statement. Under the leadership of Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino, the Red Storm are surging with both experience and momentum on their side.
The 30-point blowout was St. John’s first NCAA Tournament win since 2000 — and the largest victory margin in the program’s postseason history. The Red Storm buried 14 threes and turned up the pressure defensively, pulling away with a 12-2 second-half run.
RJ Luis Jr. led the way with 22 points on 8-of-14 shooting, including five from deep, and added eight boards. The Red Storm are firing on all cylinders offensively and defensively, ranking among the top 25 in adjusted efficiency and scoring defense.
Rick Pitino isn’t getting caught up in the narrative about him versus Calipari, though the coaching battle is certainly noteworthy. Pitino’s squad is laser-focused, and with their perimeter shooting and aggressive defense, they’re built to cover the number against anyone.
Key Betting Note:
St. John’s has covered in seven of its last 10 and has won all 10 of those games outright.
Arkansas Razorbacks (21-13 SU, 17-17 ATS)
Seed: No. 10 | Conference: SEC
Arkansas, under John Calipari, pulled off a solid 79-72 upset over Kansas in the opening round, showing they aren’t ready to bow out of March just yet. This team battled through early-season adversity, including an 0-5 start in SEC play, injuries, and lineup instability — but they’ve turned it on when it matters most.
Jonas Aidoo came alive with a season-high 22 points, helping Arkansas outlast Kansas in a tight contest. Aidoo has been heating up, averaging 15 points and 9 rebounds over the last five games, becoming a surprise difference-maker for the Razorbacks.
Freshman Boogie Fland returned after a long absence and contributed across the board, showing the Razorbacks’ bench still has some depth despite being short-handed. Calipari only used eight players in the win, but his team showed heart and hustle.
Now, they’re facing a much more balanced and deeper opponent in St. John’s, and they’ll need a near-flawless performance to keep it close — especially if they’re again working with a limited rotation.
Key Betting Note:
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog of 7+ points, but hasn’t beaten a team of St. John’s caliber during this tournament run.
Betting Outlook & Prediction
This matchup features a clash of elite coaching minds, but it’s St. John’s that has all the pieces clicking. The Red Storm’s three-point shooting, bench depth, and smothering defense create a nightmare matchup for a Razorbacks team that’s already playing with a short bench and inconsistencies throughout the season.
If St. John’s replicates even 75% of its first-round shooting performance, they should control this game and punch their ticket to the Sweet 16.
Prediction:
St. John’s 76, Arkansas 65
Best Bets:
St. John’s -7.5
Under 145.0 (Expect defensive intensity to rise with a Sweet 16 berth on the line)
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
