Arkansas (22-13) vs Texas Tech (27-8)
- When: Mar 27 2025, 10:09 PM
- Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
- Where to watch: TBS
Texas Tech vs Arkansas Sweet 16 Betting Preview and Prediction
Spread: Texas Tech -5.5 | Total: 147.0
Red Raiders Outlook
Texas Tech enters the Sweet 16 as the favorite, and for good reason. The Red Raiders (27-8) have been rolling on both ends of the floor through their first two tournament matchups. After draining 13 three-pointers against UNC-Wilmington, they pounded Drake in the paint in Round 2, finishing with a lopsided 50-20 edge in interior scoring. Their offensive versatility makes them dangerous—whether it’s outside shooting or low-post dominance, they can beat you in multiple ways.
J.T. Toppin has been a consistent force, leading Tech with 18.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. Darrion Williams, a California native playing close to home, erupted for 28 points against Drake and is averaging 20.5 points per game in the tournament. Guard Elijah Hawkins continues to make plays as the team’s primary distributor, recently hitting his 800th career assist.
With solid balance and tournament momentum, Tech has its sights set on an Elite Eight return for the first time since 2019—the same season they reached the national title game. Expect them to be aggressive early and lean on their depth and interior strength to control the tempo.
Arkansas Outlook
Arkansas (22-13), the last remaining No. 10 seed, is playing with house money—and they’re making the most of it. Head coach John Calipari has found his underdog magic once again, guiding the Razorbacks to a fourth Sweet 16 in five years after taking down No. 2 St. John’s 75-66. This gritty group is thriving on its defense, having just held Big East Player of the Year R.J. Luis Jr. to a miserable 3-of-17 shooting performance and limited the Red Storm to just 9% from long range.
Calipari has embraced the chaos, returning to his roots as a coach who thrives with underdogs. Arkansas’ lockdown defense, combined with their willingness to play physical, makes them a tough out. The expected return of Adou Thiero, the team’s top scorer (15.6 PPG) and rebounder (6.0 RPG), could be a huge boost if he’s cleared to play after missing time with a back injury.
The Razorbacks don’t light it up offensively, but they’re playing with tremendous effort and belief—a hallmark of Calipari-coached squads in March.
Betting Trends & Prediction
Texas Tech is favored by 5.5 and has covered the spread comfortably in their two tournament wins. Their balanced offensive threats, combined with solid rim protection, should give them the edge in a game that could be physical and gritty. Arkansas has thrived as an underdog, but the Red Raiders’ ability to beat teams in different ways may prove too much to overcome.
Prediction: Texas Tech 74, Arkansas 67
Lay the points with the Red Raiders. Arkansas’ run has been impressive, but Texas Tech is locked in, and their depth on both ends gives them the edge to cover and advance.
Best Bet: Texas Tech -5.5
Lean: Under 147.0 – Expect a defensive tone early with limited second-chance points
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
