- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Buffalo (13-5) at Denver (14-3)
- When: Jan 17 2026, 4:30 PM
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- Where to watch: CBS
- Last Meeting: BUF 31-7, January 12th, 2025
Buffalo vs Denver Preview & Prediction
Spread: Denver -1.5
Moneyline: Denver (-120)
Total: 46.0
Denver Broncos Betting Breakdown
Denver finally gets what it has been chasing since last postseason ended in disappointment. Home field. Mile High. And a playoff crowd that actually makes quarterbacks question their life choices. Sean Payton built this season around earning every possible edge, and the Broncos did exactly that by locking up the AFC top seed and a first round bye.
The Broncos were dominant at home all season, losing just once and winning 13 of their last 14 games in Denver. This defense is the backbone of the team, and it looks nothing like the unit Buffalo bullied last postseason. Denver leads the league in sacks, is elite in the red zone, and closes running lanes quickly. Opponents have struggled to stay balanced, especially once the pass rush gets going.
Offensively, Denver has played with confidence and composure at home. Crowd noise helps the defense feast while allowing the offense to operate with full communication. Laying 1.5 points at home in a playoff environment is a small price given how consistent the Broncos have been in their own building.
Buffalo Bills Betting Breakdown
Buffalo enters this matchup riding momentum but also carrying a lengthy injury report. The Bills earned their way here with a gritty road win, but now face a much tougher challenge at altitude against a defense designed to pressure quarterbacks relentlessly.
Josh Allen remains the heartbeat of this team, and toughness has never been his issue. Even while dealing with multiple nagging injuries, he continues to take the field and lead by example. However, the supporting cast is thinner than usual. Buffalo is missing key pieces in the secondary and the receiving group is stretched, which limits flexibility if the game script turns negative.
The Bills will need to rely heavily on execution, discipline, and Allen’s improvisation. That approach can work, but it becomes far riskier against a defense that thrives on collapsing pockets and forcing mistakes. Buffalo can compete, but margin for error is extremely small in this spot.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
Denver is favored by 1.5 points with the total set at 46.0. This line reflects how competitive Buffalo can be, but also respects the massive home field edge Denver brings into this game.
Expect a physical contest early, but Denver’s defense should gradually take control as pressure builds and the crowd noise ramps up. Buffalo’s injuries make sustained drives harder to maintain, especially late.
The total leans slightly under given the defensive strengths on both sides, but Denver’s efficiency at home should be enough to separate.
Final Score: Broncos 24, Bills 20
Lean: Denver -1.5
Total: Under 46.0
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
