Cincinnati (2-4) at Milwaukee (2-4)
- When: Apr 3 2025, 7:40 PM
- Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
- Where to watch: FDSWI
MLB Betting Preview: Astros vs Twins
Moneyline: Milwaukee -120 | Total: 7.5
The Milwaukee Brewers are slight -120 Moneyline favorites as they prepare to open a four-game homestand against division rival Cincinnati Reds on Thursday night. The total is set at 7.5 runs, and bettors can expect an intriguing pitching duel between two left-handers looking to establish rhythm early in the season.
Cincinnati Reds Outlook
Cincinnati (2-3) enters this matchup in a bit of an offensive slump. After exploding for 14 runs in Monday’s opener against Texas, the Reds went ice-cold at the plate, getting shut out in back-to-back 1-0 losses. The lineup managed just seven total hits across those two games, showing inconsistency that has plagued them early in the campaign.
Jeimer Candelario voiced frustration postgame, noting the team needs to “do our jobs.” That urgency could manifest against a Milwaukee squad that has started to find its form. The Reds will turn to Nick Lodolo (1-0, 3.00 ERA), who delivered a solid outing against the Giants in his season debut. The left-hander allowed just two earned runs across six innings and showed growing command as the game progressed.
Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers and will need to lean on his strikeout potential to tame a suddenly surging Milwaukee offense.
Milwaukee Brewers Breakdown
The Brewers (3-4) have bounced back after a rough start, getting swept by the Yankees and dropping the first game of their series with the Royals. But back-to-back wins — including a dramatic 11-inning walk-off on Wednesday — have sparked momentum for this young team.
Freddy Peralta was dominant in his most recent start, and Milwaukee’s bullpen held strong to seal the deal. Offensively, Jackson Chourio continues to impress. The highly touted prospect has hit safely in five straight games and contributed with a homer, double, and single against Kansas City.
Milwaukee will counter with lefty Nestor Cortes (0-1, 36.00 ERA), who had a disastrous 2025 debut, giving up five home runs in two innings to his former team, the Yankees. The Brewers are banking on a bounce-back performance from the veteran southpaw, who owns a stellar 1.21 ERA in one previous outing against Cincinnati.
Betting Trends & Prediction
Milwaukee has won two straight and may be hitting their stride offensively.
Cincinnati has scored just one total run in their last two games.
Nick Lodolo provides a steady hand, but if the bats don’t wake up, it may not be enough.
Prediction:
Milwaukee 4, Cincinnati 2
Take the Brewers -120 on the Moneyline and lean Under 7.5 (-105) on the total. Lodolo may keep it competitive early, but Milwaukee’s bullpen and timely hitting give them the edge.
Prop Picks:
Jackson Chourio to record a hit (streaking hot)
Nick Lodolo over 5.5 strikeouts (likely to get swings and misses)
Brice Turang to record an RBI (coming off a clutch game-winner)
This could be a low-scoring grind, but Milwaukee’s form and home field advantage tip the scale in their favor.
- MLB Odds source: MYBookie Sportsbook
