- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Denver (27-13) at Dallas (15-25)
- When: Jan 14 2026, 9:30 PM
- Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX, USA
- TV: ESPN
Denver vs Dallas Preview & Prediction
Spread: Dallas -1.0
Moneyline: Dallas (-115)
Total: 225.0
Dallas Mavericks Betting Breakdown
Dallas continues to look like a team discovering its new identity on the fly, and a big reason for that is Cooper Flagg. The rookie has quickly become the engine of the offense, showing zero fear when defenses send extra bodies his way. After a quiet outing against Chicago, Flagg responded the right way, torching Brooklyn with an efficient scoring night while handling constant pressure.
What stands out most for Dallas is composure. Flagg already plays like someone who has seen everything, even though he is still barely out of his teens. He makes the right read, trusts his handle, and does not rush shots late in games. That maturity allows the Mavericks to survive stretches without key pieces available.
Klay Thompson remains a valuable weapon, even off the bench. His shooting gravity still changes defensive spacing, and his recent shooting surge has added a reliable scoring punch. Dallas has also benefited from improved ball movement, leaning on pace and patience rather than isolation-heavy possessions.
At home, Dallas has done a solid job closing games, and facing a Denver team missing its primary interior presence shifts even more responsibility onto Dallas guards and wings to control tempo.
Mavericks Player Prop Pick: Cooper Flagg over 21.5 points – Flagg’s usage climbs in competitive games, and Dallas trusts him to create offense late when possessions matter most.
Denver Nuggets Betting Breakdown
Denver arrives in Dallas shorthanded but far from helpless. Without their usual centerpiece, the Nuggets have leaned into guard play, ball movement, and timely shot-making. Jamal Murray has embraced that role, delivering high-volume scoring and playmaking when Denver needs it most.
The Nuggets showed resilience in their last outing, grinding out a road win by trusting spacing and attacking mismatches late. Peyton Watson has stepped up as a scoring option, while Aaron Gordon remains a reliable finisher when defenses collapse.
The challenge against Dallas is sustainability. Denver can score, but defensive consistency has wavered without their anchor in the middle. If they fall behind early, it becomes difficult to string together stops, especially against a confident Dallas offense that spreads the floor well.
Still, Denver’s guard-driven attack keeps them competitive in most game scripts, even on the road.
Nuggets Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murray over 25.5 points – With Denver shorthanded, Murray’s shot volume and playmaking load remain elevated regardless of game flow.
NBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
This matchup shapes up as a tight, offense-friendly contest. Dallas has the edge in stability, health, and home-court comfort, while Denver relies heavily on Murray to create offense late. With the spread essentially asking who wins the game, Dallas holds the advantage thanks to Flagg’s shot creation and improved spacing.
The total sits at a playable number, with both teams capable of scoring in bursts, especially if the game stays close into the final minutes.
Dallas edges out a competitive game, covers the short number, and rides continued growth from its rookie star.
Final Score: Mavericks 116, Nuggets 112
Lean: Dallas -1.0
Total: Over 225.0
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
