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Denver (30-15) at Milwaukee (18-25)
- When: Jan 23 2026, 9:30 PM
- Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI, USA
- TV: ALT
Denver vs Milwaukee Preview & Prediction
Spread: Milwaukee -6.5
Moneyline: Milwaukee (-225)
Total: 216.5
Denver Nuggets Breakdown
Denver arrives in Milwaukee riding momentum from a solid road win, even while shorthanded. The Nuggets have continued to find ways to score and defend without their usual MVP anchor, leaning on depth, energy, and aggressive perimeter play. Their recent performances show a team comfortable playing faster and relying on ball movement rather than one dominant creator.
Peyton Watson has emerged as a major spark, coming off a career-best scoring night while attacking mismatches and pushing tempo. Jamal Murray remains the steady hand, controlling pace and closing quarters, while Jonas Valanciunas gives Denver a stabilizing interior presence that was badly missed during his absence.
Defensively, Denver has tightened up with Valanciunas back, allowing them to rebound more consistently and avoid getting bullied in the paint. That balance is critical against a Milwaukee team that thrives when games become physical.
Nuggets Player Prop Pick: Peyton Watson over 17.5 points
Watson is seeing expanded usage, playing with confidence, and benefiting from Milwaukee’s recent defensive lapses on the wings.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown
Milwaukee enters this matchup searching for answers. The Bucks have dropped five of their last seven games and chemistry has become a real concern. Giannis Antetokounmpo has carried his usual production, but frustration has clearly boiled over as the team struggles to play connected basketball on both ends.
The offense has stalled into isolation-heavy possessions, while defensive effort has been inconsistent. Injuries have not helped matters, with key rotation pieces unavailable and others playing limited minutes. Milwaukee still owns a strong home-court edge, but recent performances suggest urgency rather than confidence.
Giannis remains the focal point, attacking the glass relentlessly and setting the tone defensively. However, without consistent secondary playmaking, Milwaukee has struggled to sustain scoring runs. This game sets up as a potential get-right spot, but execution must improve immediately.
Bucks Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 10.5 rebounds
With Denver missing key frontcourt depth recently and Giannis playing with visible intensity, rebounding volume should be there.
Betting Outlook and Prediction
Milwaukee is favored by 6.5, largely due to home court and Denver’s injury list, but the Nuggets have proven they can stay competitive in these spots. Denver’s depth and energy should keep this closer than the spread suggests, especially if Milwaukee’s offensive rhythm remains shaky.
The total sits at 216.5, and recent trends point toward a slightly lower-scoring game, with both teams emphasizing half-court possessions and physical defense.
Final Prediction:
Milwaukee wins but does not cover
Lean toward Denver plus the points and a slight lean to the under
Final Score: Bucks 109, Nuggets 104
Lean: Denver +6.5
Total: Under 216.5
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
