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Florida (29-24-3) at Tampa Bay (36-14-4)
- When: Feb 5 2026, 7:30 PM
- Where: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL, USA
- TV: ESPN+/Hulu
Florida vs Tampa Bay NHL Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -195
Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+130)
Total: 6.0
Florida Panthers: Panic Buttons and Deep Breaths
Matthew Tkachuk did not sugarcoat it, and honestly, neither should anyone else. Florida is wobbling like a grocery cart with one bad wheel. Outshooting Buffalo 42 to 20 and still losing 5 to 3 is the hockey version of bringing notes to an open book test and still failing. The Panthers needed a win badly, then followed it up by nearly gift wrapping one for Boston before salvaging a 5 to 4 shootout victory that felt more stressful than satisfying.
Florida allowed seven power plays, coughed up a two goal lead in the third period, and still watched the Bruins skate away with a valuable point. The math is not friendly either. The Panthers sit eight points behind Boston in the wild card chase, and time is starting to feel like a rude roommate who never leaves.
There were positives. Anton Lundell scored short handed and chipped in three points, Sergei Bobrovsky recorded career win number 450, and the power play actually worked. But now Florida gets to walk into Tampa where the Lightning have been turning home ice into a no fly zone.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Late Goals and Pure Chaos
Tampa Bay does not panic. Tampa Bay waits. Then Tampa Bay strikes with about 15 seconds left, because drama is a lifestyle choice. The Lightning have won 18 of their last 20 games, many of them in heart attack inducing fashion. Jake Guentzel has been the closer, scoring game winners in overtime, shootouts, and moments specifically designed to ruin opposing fan evenings.
Guentzel already has 25 goals, while Nikita Kucherov has gone full video game mode with 90 points, including 75 in his last 35 games. That blind pass to Guentzel against Buffalo looked illegal, possibly magical, and definitely unfair.
Even with injuries down the middle, Tampa keeps rolling, keeps believing, and keeps finding ways to win. At home, they have stacked nine straight victories, and that building has not been kind to visiting teams who arrive tired and emotionally fragile.
Final Prediction
Florida will compete, push the pace, and briefly make Lightning fans uncomfortable. Then Tampa will do what Tampa does best.
Florida fights. Tampa finishes. And somewhere, Kucherov is already smiling.
Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Panthers 2
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+130)
Total: Under 6.5 Alt Lines (-135)
- NHL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
