Florida (3-1) at Tampa Bay (1-3)
- When: Apr 30 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL, USA
- TV: ESPN2
NHL Playoffs Game 5 Preview: Panthers at Lightning
Moneyline Favorite: Tampa Bay -112 | Total: 5.5
Florida Panthers Outlook
Florida heads into Game 5 with momentum and a chance to eliminate their state rivals on the road. After surviving a shaky start in Game 4, the Panthers turned the tables with a dramatic late-game flurry that saw them score three times in just over two minutes to take control of the series.
Despite losing key defenseman Aaron Ekblad to a two-game suspension following a high hit on Brandon Hagel, Florida has consistently shown they can weather adversity. Their penalty kill has been elite, stifling Tampa Bay’s top-5 power play all series long, and they’ve allowed just one power-play goal on 15 Lightning chances.
Florida’s late-game poise and clutch scoring, along with their 5-0 record in playoff series where they’ve taken a 3-1 lead, positions them as the better value in a near-even moneyline. Look for Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk to lead the way again.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
It’s do-or-die time for Tampa Bay, who looked poised to tie the series before unraveling in Game 4’s final minutes. The Lightning were just under four minutes away from sending the series back home even — then it all fell apart.
Coach Jon Cooper’s squad has struggled mightily on the power play, going just 1-for-15 in the series. They couldn’t capitalize on a five-minute major in Game 4 and managed just one shot during that critical stretch. Now without Brandon Hagel (concussion protocol) and still frustrated by the officiating, Tampa must summon its championship mettle to survive.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to stand tall in net, and stars like Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel must deliver if Tampa wants to extend the series. With home ice, desperation, and pride on their side, the Bolts are still dangerous — but their margin for error is gone.
Betting Analysis & Score Prediction
This series has been tight, with Florida outscoring Tampa by just five goals through four games. But the Panthers have been sharper in crunch time and have the more consistent special teams unit.
Prediction:
Best Bet: Panthers (-108)
Total: Under 5.5 (-105)
Score Prediction: Panthers 3, Lightning 2
- NHL Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
