Florida (35-4) vs Houston (35-4)
- When: Apr 7 2025, 8:50 PM
- Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
NCAA Championship Expert Preview & Picks: Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars
Line: Florida -1 | Total: 141.0
Houston Cougars Outlook
The Houston Cougars are one win away from erasing decades of frustration. After six trips to the Final Four without a title, they finally have a chance to bring one home and they’re peaking at the right time. Houston (35-4) enters Monday’s championship showdown on an 18-game winning streak and fresh off a historic comeback over Duke in the national semifinal.
Senior guard LJ Cryer leads a balanced Cougars offense, averaging 15.6 points per game and coming off a 26-point effort in the Final Four. With Cryer, Emanuel Sharp (12.8 PPG), and Milos Uzan (11.5 PPG), Houston not only has a tough-as-nails defensive identity, but they also lead the country in 3-point shooting at nearly 40%.
Kelvin Sampson, aiming to become the oldest coach to win a national title at 69, has built this team on grit, rebounding, and elite defensive rotations. Expect a heavy dose of pressure on the perimeter and a physical inside presence from J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler, both capable of switching onto guards and closing space quickly.
Best Prop Bets (Houston):
LJ Cryer Over 2.5 Made Threes
J’Wan Roberts Over 6.5 Rebounds
Prediction Angle (Houston): If the Cougars can slow Florida’s tempo, dominate the glass, and get a big shooting night from their guards, they’ll grind out a win in a one-possession thriller.
Florida Gators Outlook
Florida (35-4) is on fire at the right time. The Gators ride an 11-game winning streak into the title game and feature one of the nation’s most explosive and efficient offenses. First-team All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr. has been unstoppable in the tournament, averaging 27 points over the past two rounds, including a career-best 34 against Auburn.
Florida ranks third in offensive efficiency in the KenPom era and shoots over 50% from the field as a team. When defenses key in on Clayton, the Gators spread the floor with Alijah Martin (14.6 PPG), Will Richard (13.2 PPG), and versatile big men like Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, who combine for 20.4 points per game.
Coach Todd Golden’s youthful energy and analytic-heavy approach have paid off, and his team won’t shy away from the physicality Houston brings. If the Gators can space the floor, beat Houston’s traps, and crash the boards defensively, they can outgun the Cougars.
Best Prop Bets (Florida):
Walter Clayton Jr. Over 19.5 Points
Alijah Martin Over 1.5 Made Threes
Prediction Angle (Florida): Florida’s offensive weapons and late-game poise give them a slight edge. If Clayton can draw doubles and create clean looks for teammates, the Gators are in prime position to bring home their first title since 2007.
Betting Prediction & Final Score Pick
This one is as evenly matched as it gets—elite offense vs elite defense. With the total set at 141, expect a tactical, grind-it-out battle that likely comes down to the final possession. Both teams are capable of pulling it off, but slight edges in tempo and big-shot experience tilt it just barely.
Pick: Florida -1
Total Lean: Under 141.0
Final Score Prediction: Florida 70, Houston 67
Tight game, high stakes, and one possession could decide who walks away with the trophy.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
