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Houston (15-5) at Dallas (8-16)
- When: Dec 6 2025, 8:30 PM
- Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX, USA
- TV: SCHN
Houston vs Dallas Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -8.5
Moneyline: Houston (-340)
Total: 225.0
Houston Rockets Betting Breakdown
Houston’s Kevin Durant era keeps paying off, and the Rockets look every bit like a serious Western Conference problem. Durant cruised past the 31,000-point milestone on Friday while dropping 28 in a comfortable win over Phoenix, reminding everyone that age has nothing to do with his impact. He’s averaging 25 plus per night on elite efficiency and is the engine behind Houston’s rapid rise.
Durant isn’t doing it alone. Amen Thompson erupted for 31 last game, Jabari Smith added steady scoring, and Reed Sheppard kept the second unit humming. Houston didn’t even have Alperen Sengun available due to illness, yet still controlled every facet of the game. If Sengun returns Saturday, that only widens the gap Houston already has at full strength.
Playing on a back-to-back isn’t ideal, but this team’s depth and pace have made them a reliable bet against inconsistent squads. Expect Houston to try to dictate the tempo early and exploit Dallas’ defensive lapses, especially on the perimeter.
Houston Player Prop Pick: Kevin Durant Over 24.5 Points – He’s in rhythm, on a milestone high, and Dallas has struggled all year slowing down elite wing scorers.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Breakdown
Dallas has been unpredictable, but getting Anthony Davis back from his calf issue has at least stabilized the lineup. That said, stability didn’t help much in their blowout loss Friday to Oklahoma City. Davis finished with just two points on 1-for-9 shooting, and now he has to suit up again on zero rest.
There are bright spots. Ryan Nembhard has been one of the biggest surprises of the week, flashing excellent playmaking against Denver and Miami. His confidence and pace give Dallas some needed rhythm, but the overall team inconsistency makes them difficult to trust at the betting window.
The Mavericks will need to slow the pace and limit second-chance points to cover this number. That’s easier said than done against a Rocket team that hunts early offense and thrives in mismatches. Unless Dallas puts together its cleanest defensive effort in weeks, this could get away from them.
Dallas Player Prop Pick: Anthony Davis Under 19.5 Points – He’s coming off a poor shooting night, playing on a back-to-back, and draws a Rockets defense that has bothered physical bigs all season.
Final Betting Prediction
Houston has the better balance, the deeper bench, the hotter star, and the more reliable structure on a back-to-back. Dallas is capable of pushing the pace, but defensive gaps and shooting volatility make them a tough sell against a Rockets team firing on all cylinders.
Final Score: Rockets 118, Mavericks 108
Lean: Houston -8.5
Total: Over 225.0
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
