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Houston (23-2) vs Iowa State (22-3)
- When: Feb 16 2026, 9:00 PM
- Where: James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(3) Houston vs (5) Iowa State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Iowa State -2.5
Moneyline: Iowa State (-149)
Total: 134.5
Houston Cougars Betting Breakdown
Houston brings the usual formula to Ames: defense first, second, and third. The Cougars win ugly, win physical, and win late. That has translated into a 23-2 record and one of the toughest defensive profiles in the country.
Emanuel Sharp has become the offensive spark. When Houston’s half court sets stall, Sharp can bail them out with perimeter scoring. The Cougars do not need 85 points to win. They need 70 and stops. Plenty of them. The total at 134.5 screams grind, and Houston is comfortable playing in the mud.
Player Prop Pick – Emanuel Sharp Over 16.5 Points – With Iowa State likely loading up defensively, Houston will need shot creation. Sharp’s recent scoring rhythm suggests another high usage night.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Breakdown
Iowa State is nearly untouchable at home. The Cyclones are 14-0 in Ames this season and have turned Hilton Coliseum into a defensive furnace. They just dismantled Kansas with pressure, physicality, and efficient shot making.
Milan Momcilovic stretches the floor and forces opposing bigs to defend the arc. When he is hitting from deep, Iowa State becomes far more dynamic offensively. The Cyclones defend with purpose and rarely give up clean looks, especially at home.
Player Prop Pick – Milan Momcilovic Over 14.5 Points – He is coming off a strong outing and benefits from Houston’s tendency to collapse inside, opening perimeter attempts.
Expert Final Score Prediction
This matchup will feel like a postseason game. Both teams defend at elite levels, which explains the modest total. Iowa State’s home dominance and defensive intensity give them the edge.
Houston will keep it tight, but the Cyclones protect home court.
Final Score: Iowa State 68, Houston 64
Lean: Iowa State -2.5
Total: Under 134.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
