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Houston (23-4) vs Kansas (20-7)
- When: Feb 23 2026, 9:00 PM
- Where: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(2) Houston vs (8) Kansas Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -1.5
Moneyline: Houston (-127)
Total: 138.0
Right then, let’s settle in. Two proper heavyweights, a one-point five spread, and a total sitting at 138.0. That tells you this will not be a track meet. This is Big 12 basketball, and it tends to feel more like a bar fight than a ballet.
Houston Cougars Analysis
Houston comes in at 23-4 overall and 11-3 in conference play, but they’ve just dropped back-to-back games to Iowa State (70-67) and Arizona (73-66). Kelvin Sampson, as calm as a man who’s seen every storm, has urged everyone not to panic. And he’s right. In this league, losses happen. The key is how you respond.
Kingston Flemings is the steady hand. He averages 16.6 points and 5.2 assists per game and poured in 17 against Arizona. He’s the Cougars’ top scorer and primary decision-maker. Emanuel Sharp adds 16.4 points per outing and has knocked down 74 three-pointers this season. Milos Uzan chips in 11.1 points and 4.1 assists. This is a disciplined, balanced side.
Houston has beaten Kansas three straight times, and that psychological edge matters. They had won six in a row before this brief wobble, and defensively they still grind teams down. With a total of 138.0, the market expects half-court possessions and contested looks. That suits Houston just fine.
Player Prop Lean: Kingston Flemings Over 17.5 Points – In a tight, road environment, Houston will rely heavily on Flemings’ shot creation. Expect high usage and late-clock opportunities.
Kansas Jayhawks Analysis
Kansas sits at 20-7 and 10-4 in the Big 12. They’ve lost two of their last three and are coming off a humbling 84-68 defeat to Cincinnati. They were outrebounded 40-29 and shot just 4 of 18 from deep. That’s not a slump; that’s a wake-up call.
Flory Bidunga continues to be the interior anchor, averaging 14.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game while leading the conference with 74 blocks. He had 18 points and 12 boards in the loss to Cincinnati. Darryn Peterson averages 19.8 points and leads the team with 45 made threes, but he’s struggled to clear 20 points consistently of late.
Bill Self’s teams rarely stay down long. At home in Lawrence, pride and defensive intensity tend to rise sharply after embarrassment.
Player Prop Lean: Flory Bidunga Over 9.5 Rebounds – Kansas will look to reassert physicality inside. Bidunga’s rebounding volume should spike in a grind-it-out contest.
Betting Prediction
The 1.5 line reflects how evenly matched these sides are. But Houston’s defensive structure, recent dominance in the head-to-head, and steadier backcourt tip the scales ever so slightly.
With both teams capable of suffocating stretches, the under 138.0 holds appeal. Still, in these narrow spreads, execution wins.
Final Score: Houston 69, Kansas 66
Lean: Houston -1.5
Total: Under 138.0
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
