Houston (32-14) at Memphis (31-16)
- When: Jan 30 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: FedExForum, Memphis, TN, USA
- TV: TNT
Game Preview
Betting Analysis: Memphis -5.0, Total 236.0
The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies face off in a Western Conference clash on Thursday, with Houston aiming to do something it hasn’t accomplished in 15 seasons—sweep the season series against Memphis. The Rockets have won the first three meetings, including a dominant 128-108 victory to open the season, but the last two matchups were tightly contested, decided by four points or fewer.
Both teams enter this game in solid form, winning seven of their last nine contests. However, Houston has been scorching hot since the start of 2025, riding a four-game winning streak and sitting second in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games ahead of third-place Memphis.
With Memphis favored by 5 points and the total set at 236, let’s break down the best betting angles, including spreads, totals, and player props.
Houston Rockets Analysis
The Rockets have been rolling, winning 10 of their last 12 games, including statement victories over the Celtics and Hawks. Dillon Brooks has caught fire from beyond the arc, draining a franchise-record-tying 10 three-pointers against Boston and hitting 13 threes in his last two games.
Jalen Green continues to emerge as the leader of Houston’s offense, averaging 21.3 points per game and proving to be one of the most durable players in the league with 150 consecutive starts. Since January 1, Green has been on another level, scoring 25+ points in 10 of his last 14 games, compared to just eight such performances in the first two months of the season.
Meanwhile, rookie standout Amen Thompson has quietly been one of the most versatile players in the NBA. Since January 5, he is one of only four players averaging at least 18 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists per game. His presence in the lineup gives Houston another dynamic playmaker to put pressure on Memphis’ defense.
With Houston playing its third straight road game, fatigue could become a factor, especially against a Grizzlies team that thrives at home.
Memphis Grizzlies Analysis
Memphis saw its six-game winning streak snapped in brutal fashion against the Knicks, suffering its worst loss of the season in a 143-106 blowout. The Grizzlies were completely out of sync, committing 26 turnovers that led to 36 New York points, while also allowing 17 offensive rebounds that resulted in 28 second-chance points.
Desmond Bane, typically a steady force in the backcourt, struggled mightily with six turnovers in that loss. Head coach Taylor Jenkins admitted that his team was off from the start and never recovered.
Despite that setback, returning home could be the perfect reset button for the Grizzlies. They are an impressive 19-5 at FedExForum, recently completing a dominant four-game homestand before heading on the road. However, their last home loss came against this same Rockets team on January 9, a 119-115 defeat.
If Memphis wants to avoid another loss to Houston, they will need to clean up their ball security and use their size advantage in the paint to dominate the boards. The Grizzlies rank second in the NBA in rebounding, just behind the Rockets, and they’ll need to assert themselves physically to control the tempo.
Key Matchups & Player Prop Bets
Jalen Green’s Scoring Prop Over 22.5 Points
Green has been on fire in 2025, scoring 25+ points in 10 of his last 14 games. With Houston’s offense flowing through him, expect another high-volume night.
Dillon Brooks Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Brooks has 13 threes in his last two games and continues to be a major perimeter threat.
Desmond Bane Over 3.5 Turnovers
Bane struggled with six turnovers last game, and Houston’s defensive pressure could force him into more mistakes.
Betting Predictions
Memphis is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss, and with home-court advantage, they’ll have the energy to start fast. However, Houston has already won three games in this series and comes in with strong momentum. If the Rockets can withstand an early Grizzlies surge, they have the firepower to keep this one close.
The Rockets +5 is an attractive play given their ability to keep games tight, and with both teams ranking near the top in pace, the Over 236 also holds value.
Best Bets:
Houston +5.0 (Rockets have won all three meetings and can keep it close again.)
Over 236.0 (Both teams play fast and have dynamic scorers.)
Jalen Green Over 22.5 Points (Scoring at an elite level in 2025.)
Final Score Prediction: Memphis 123, Houston 120
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
