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Houston (13-5) at New England (15-3)
- When: Jan 18 2026, 3:00 PM
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Where to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Last Meeting: HOU 41-21, October 13th, 2024
Houston vs New England Preview & Prediction
Spread: New England -3.0
Moneyline: New England (-170)
Total: 40.5
New England Patriots Betting Preview
Drake Maye remembers his first NFL start the way most people remember their first apartment. Technically functional, emotionally traumatic, and filled with lessons you never want to repeat. That debut was ugly, loud, and educational. Fast forward to now, and Maye looks like a completely different quarterback. The jitters are gone. The confidence is real. The Patriots are back to being annoyingly good.
New England went from the basement to the penthouse in one season and now finds itself hosting a playoff game with real expectations. The offense has been efficient, aggressive, and shockingly fun. Maye has matured quickly, reading defenses better, escaping pressure, and avoiding the back breaking mistakes that usually define young quarterbacks in January.
This team scores points, controls tempo, and thrives at home. The Patriots are favored by three points, and that number reflects how much trust the market has in their offense and their ability to finish games. Low total or not, New England knows how to squeeze value out of every possession.
The crowd will be loud, the defense opportunistic, and Maye will not be seeing ghosts this time.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
Houston arrives riding confidence, momentum, and a defensive unit that treats opposing quarterbacks like stress balls. The Texans have not been perfect, but they have been relentless. Their defense is the backbone of everything they do, and it is good enough to keep them in any game.
C J Stroud has proven he belongs on this stage. He has already won playoff games and does not look rattled easily. That said, ball security has been an adventure lately. Turnovers have crept in, and against a disciplined Patriots team, that is flirting with disaster.
The Texans are also shorthanded offensively. Missing key receiving options puts more pressure on Stroud to be flawless, and perfection is hard to come by in Foxborough. Houston will fight, scrap, and land punches, but sustaining drives may be tougher than usual.
This is still the most meaningful football the Texans have ever played, but history does not always reward first timers.
Betting Breakdown and Prediction
New England is favored by three points with the total sitting at 40.5, which screams playoff football. Defense, nerves, and field position will dominate early. Expect some conservative play calling, followed by sharper execution as the game settles.
Houston will have moments. Stroud will make plays. But New England has the steadier quarterback situation right now, the healthier offense, and the home field edge that actually matters in January.
This feels like a tight game that New England controls late, forcing Houston to chase.
Final Score: Patriots 23, Texans 15
Lean: New England -3.0
Total: Under 40.5
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
