Houston (23-4) at Texas Tech (21-6)
- When: Feb 24 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
Game Preview
Houston Favored by 1.5, Total Set at 130.5
The Houston Cougars are closing in on another Big 12 regular-season title, but they still have business to take care of as they head to Lubbock for a high-stakes rematch against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. This game is personal for Houston, as Texas Tech remains the only team to defeat them in conference play this season.
With Houston favored by just 1.5 points and the total set at 130.5, Bovada oddsmakers expect a gritty, defensive battle between two teams with a lot on the line. The Cougars are looking for revenge and further separation in the Big 12 standings, while the Red Raiders have their sights set on proving that their earlier win over Houston was no fluke.
Houston Cougars: Seeking Revenge and Control of the Big 12
Houston has been one of the most dominant teams in the country, riding a six-game winning streak after securing a hard-fought 68-59 victory over No. 8 Iowa State. They now hold a three-game lead in the Big 12 standings with just four games left in the regular season, putting them in prime position to lock up the top seed for the conference tournament.
The Cougars nearly let a 16-point lead slip away against Iowa State, but L.J. Cryer stepped up with a 28-point performance, proving once again that he is one of the most dangerous scorers in the conference. Houston’s defensive pressure and ability to grind out wins late in games have been their calling cards all season, and they’ll need that same toughness to avoid a second loss to Texas Tech.
Head coach Kelvin Sampson understands the challenge of the Big 12 and knows this game is crucial for momentum heading into March.
“Let’s not sit here and slice and dice being 15-1,” Sampson said. “Texas Tech has a great program, Iowa State has a great program, and so does Houston. When you are missing players, they just find a way to compete.”
One key for Houston will be slowing down JT Toppin, who missed time in the first matchup but led Texas Tech with 22 points in their last game. If the Cougars can control the paint and limit second-chance opportunities, they will put themselves in position to win on the road.
Key Betting Trends for Houston:
Houston is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in road games this season.
The Cougars have won four straight games against ranked opponents.
Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups vs. Texas Tech.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Aiming for the Season Sweep
Texas Tech enters this matchup with momentum after a dominant 73-51 victory over West Virginia, in which they outscored the Mountaineers by 19 points in the second half. That level of second-half dominance is exactly what they’ll need to pull off another upset against Houston.
The Red Raiders shocked the Cougars in their first meeting on February 1, grinding out an 82-81 overtime victory that ended Houston’s 33-game home winning streak, which was the longest active streak in the nation at the time. That win proved that Texas Tech is a legitimate contender in the Big 12, and repeating that success would strengthen their case as a team to watch heading into the postseason.
Head coach Grant McCasland emphasized the importance of matching Houston’s intensity, knowing that this will be another physical, grind-it-out battle.
“This game is about an approach, mentality, and willingness to stay in the middle of it,” McCasland said. “Nobody does that better than Houston. If we want to be the program that everyone loves, then this game will be a great barometer for our grit level.”
With JT Toppin leading the way inside and Christian Anderson coming off a career-high 21 points, the Red Raiders have the firepower to keep pace with Houston. If they can limit turnovers and knock down perimeter shots, they could once again frustrate the Cougars’ defense and put themselves in a position to win late.
Key Betting Trends for Texas Tech:
Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
The Red Raiders are 12-2 at home this season.
Texas Tech is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. Houston.
Game Prediction & Best Bets
This game has all the makings of another defensive slugfest, with both teams ranking among the best in the country in defensive efficiency. Houston is hungry for revenge, but Texas Tech has already proven they can handle the Cougars’ physicality, making this a dangerous spot for the road favorite.
Given Texas Tech’s dominance at home and their ability to grind out wins late, the Red Raiders have strong value as a home underdog. However, expect Houston’s defense to lock in down the stretch, leading to a tight game that comes down to the final possessions.
Best Bets:
Texas Tech +1.5 – The Red Raiders have been tough at home and have already beaten Houston once.
Under 130.5 – Both teams rely on defensive pressure and slow, methodical offenses.
Houston First Half -0.5 – The Cougars should come out strong looking for revenge before this game tightens up late.
Final Score Prediction: Houston 65, Texas Tech 64
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
