Illinois (22-12) vs Kentucky (23-11)
- When: Mar 23 2025, 5:15 PM
- Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Illinois vs. Kentucky – Midwest Region Showdown
Location: NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Spread: Illinois -2.0
Total: 169.5
Illinois Fighting Illini (22-12, #6 Seed)
The Illini are heating up at just the right time. After dealing with a stretch of injuries and illness during conference play, Illinois has found its rhythm and is getting healthier — and more dangerous. Their 86-73 opening-round win over Xavier was led by a breakout performance from their young core, especially freshman Will Riley (22 points) and do-it-all guard Kasparas Jakucionis (16 points, 10 assists, 9 rebounds).
Big man Tomislav Ivisic also dominated with a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double, helping Illinois bully Xavier on the glass with a 45-25 rebounding edge. Illinois may be seeded sixth, but they’re playing with confidence and depth. Five players are averaging double figures, and Jakucionis continues to prove he’s the real deal with strong two-way production.
Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its last five and looks like a team capable of upsetting the bracket if their freshmen keep producing.
Kentucky Wildcats (23-11, #3 Seed)
After a shaky start against Troy, Kentucky slammed the door shut with a dominant 16-0 second-half run in their 76-57 victory. The Wildcats used their depth and perimeter shooting to pull away — knocking down 10 threes and dishing out 23 assists on 28 made baskets.
Otega Oweh led the charge with 20 points and continues to be the offensive engine, averaging 16.4 ppg. Koby Brea, Lamont Butler, and Amari Williams round out a balanced attack, while Williams also controls the glass with 8.6 boards per game. Despite losing second-leading scorer Jaxson Robinson to a season-ending injury, Kentucky hasn’t missed a beat, thanks to Mark Pope’s high-tempo, ball-sharing offense.
Kentucky is 5-2 ATS over its last seven and thrives when the threes are falling — but they’ll face a much tougher defensive front in Illinois than they did with Troy.
Betting Outlook & Prediction
This one has the feel of a high-octane shootout with two deep, high-scoring rosters colliding. With both teams combining to average over 170 points per game, the Over looks like a strong lean — especially considering how efficiently they both shot in the opening round.
Illinois brings a bit more size and rebounding, and their ability to control the glass could be the difference in what figures to be a tightly contested game. Kentucky has the edge in tournament pedigree and spacing, but the Illini’s momentum and frontcourt dominance tip the scales slightly.
Best Bets:
Illinois -2.0
Over 169.5
Final Score Prediction: Illinois 88, Kentucky 84
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
