Illinois (14-6) at Nebraska (12-8)
- When: Jan 30 2025, 8:30 PM
- Where: Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Game Preview
Illinois heads to Lincoln on Thursday night looking to keep its momentum rolling against a struggling Nebraska squad that has dropped six straight games. The Fighting Illini dominated Northwestern in their last outing, while Nebraska is in freefall after an 83-55 blowout loss to Wisconsin. With Illinois favored by 4.5 and the total set at 153.5, let’s break down the best betting angles for this Big Ten matchup.
Illinois Fighting Illini Analysis
Illinois is heating up at the right time, with head coach Brad Underwood confident that his squad has the potential to be dominant down the stretch. The Illini flexed their muscles in an 83-74 win over Northwestern, a game where they led by as many as 22 points before taking their foot off the gas late.
One of the most impressive aspects of Illinois’ recent success has been its rebounding dominance. Despite missing 7-foot-1 center Tomislav Ivisic (mononucleosis), Illinois still outrebounded Northwestern 50-27, including a staggering 21 offensive rebounds. Freshman Morez Johnson Jr. stepped up in Ivisic’s absence, posting 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks.
The Illini lead all of Division I in rebounding, averaging 42 boards per game, and their ability to control the glass should be a major factor against a Nebraska team that has struggled defensively.
Illinois also boasts a balanced offensive attack, with Kasparas Jakucionis leading the team at 15.9 points per game, while also dishing out 5.4 assists. If Ivisic is unable to go again, Illinois will still have the edge with multiple players capable of stepping up in the paint.
Nebraska Cornhuskers Analysis
The Cornhuskers were once flirting with a Top 25 ranking after a 12-2 start, but things have unraveled quickly. Nebraska has now lost six straight games, allowing an average of 86 points per contest during this skid. Their defensive struggles were on full display against Wisconsin, where they allowed 17 three-pointers in an ugly 83-55 defeat.
Head coach Fred Hoiberg acknowledged that confidence is becoming an issue, and if Nebraska can’t tighten things up defensively, they’ll have a tough time keeping pace with an efficient Illinois offense.
Brice Williams remains Nebraska’s top scorer at 18.2 points per game, but he struggled against Wisconsin, finishing with just 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting. The Cornhuskers need a big bounce-back game from Williams, but with their recent defensive lapses, even a strong individual effort may not be enough to get them back in the win column.
The only silver lining for Nebraska is that after this game and a road trip to No. 16 Oregon, their schedule lightens up. However, with the Big Ten tournament cutting off the bottom three teams, the Cornhuskers need to turn things around fast if they want to make a push for another NCAA Tournament berth.
Key Matchups & Betting Trends
Illinois’ Rebounding Edge: The Illini are the best rebounding team in the nation, while Nebraska has struggled to keep teams off the glass.
Nebraska’s Defensive Issues: The Cornhuskers have allowed 86 points per game over their last six contests, making them vulnerable against an Illinois team with multiple scoring threats.
Head-to-Head Dominance: Illinois leads the all-time series 23-8 and has won the last nine meetings.
Betting Predictions
Illinois has all the momentum heading into this matchup, while Nebraska is searching for answers. The Illini’s ability to dominate the boards and exploit Nebraska’s defensive struggles should give them a clear path to victory. With Nebraska struggling to defend the perimeter and getting crushed inside, Illinois should be able to pull away late.
The Over 153.5 is also worth considering, given Nebraska’s defensive issues and Illinois’ ability to control the tempo.
Best Bets:
Illinois -4.5 (The Illini’s rebounding and defensive edge will be too much for Nebraska.)
Over 153.5 (Nebraska’s inability to defend should lead to a high-scoring affair.)
Final Score Prediction: Illinois 84, Nebraska 72
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
