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Indianapolis (8-4-0) at Jacksonville (8-4-0)
- When: Dec 7 2025, 1:00 PM
- Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- Where to watch: CBS
- Last Meeting: IND 26-23, January 5th, 2025
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Preview & Prediction
Spread: Indianapolis -1.5
Moneyline: Indianapolis (-130)
Total: 45.5
Indianapolis Colts Breakdown
A new season and a revamped roster give Indianapolis another chance to break one of the strangest droughts in the league. The Colts have not won a road game in Jacksonville since 2014, a slump that spans 10 straight losses, including a one-off game in London. Zaire Franklin made it clear the team is not dwelling on that streak. With new ownership, new faces and a playoff race heating up, Indianapolis sees this as a fresh slate.
The Colts sit at 8-4 but have fallen off recently, losing three of their last four, each by one score. With a brutal remaining schedule that includes Seattle, San Francisco, Houston and a second meeting with Jacksonville, this matchup feels close to a must win. Indianapolis already snapped its long Week 1 losing streak earlier this season when it beat Miami, so ending another skid is not out of reach.
Coach Shane Steichen is steering the focus toward the present. No talk of history, no talk of past failures, just a chance to regain control of the AFC South. For the Colts to break through, they need sharper execution on offense and more efficiency in key moments. Running back Jonathan Taylor has struggled mightily at this stadium in past matchups, averaging just 43 yards per game across four appearances. Now he faces the league’s toughest run defense, making Indy’s task even tougher.
Jacksonville Jaguars Breakdown
Jacksonville is also 8-4, yet trending in the opposite direction. Winners of three straight and four of their last five, the Jaguars return home with confidence and a chance to stay atop the AFC South. EverBank Stadium has been a house of horrors for Indianapolis, and Jacksonville knows it holds a psychological and stylistic advantage.
Coach Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence are downplaying the history, insisting this team wants to earn its wins in the present rather than rely on past dominance. Still, Lawrence admitted the Colts will use the streak as added motivation. Jacksonville has rarely been involved in late season games with two playoff contenders in the building, making this matchup unusually meaningful for a franchise that has historically struggled in December.
The Jaguars defense, led by Josh Hines-Allen, is embracing the physical challenge ahead. They own the number one rushing defense in the league and expect Indianapolis to test the edges early. If Jacksonville continues to win battles at the line of scrimmage, they will force the Colts into uncomfortable passing situations.
Meanwhile, Daniel Jones has been battling a lower left leg injury, and his movement and accuracy have notably declined in the past few weeks. Defenses have picked up on it, bringing more pressure and forcing difficult throws. Jones maintains he feels better each week, but the impact of the injury has clearly shifted how Jacksonville attacks offensively.
Prediction and Betting Outlook
Indianapolis enters with desperation and motivation but with clear challenges on both sides of the ball. Their offense has yet to consistently threaten elite defenses, and Taylor’s past struggles in Jacksonville are hard to ignore. The Jaguars are playing their best football at the right time, especially defensively, and that gives them a strong edge.
With the Colts laying 1.5 points, the value leans toward the home underdog. Jacksonville matches up well defensively and carries the momentum in a tight divisional race. The total at 45.5 sits in a tricky range, but with two motivated teams and the potential for grinding possessions, this profiles closer to a controlled, mid-tempo matchup.
Final Score: Jaguars 23 Colts 20
Lean: Jacksonville (+110)
Total: Under 46.0
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
