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Kansas (21-7) vs Arizona (26-2)
- When: Feb 28 2026, 4:00 PM
- Where: McKale Center, Tucson, AZ, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(14) Kansas vs (2) Arizona Preview & Prediction
Spread: Arizona -10.0
Moneyline: Arizona (-575)
Total: 149.5
Arizona Wildcats Betting Breakdown
This is the kind of late season spot bettors circle weeks in advance. Arizona returns home ranked No. 2 in the country at 26 and 2 overall and 13 and 2 in Big 12 play. The Wildcats are laying 10 points with the total set at 149.5, and motivation is sky high. A win secures at least a share of the regular season conference title while avenging their only early season setback.
Arizona has quietly stacked three straight wins, including statement road victories at Houston and Baylor. That matters from a trend perspective. Winning in hostile environments builds tournament ready habits.
The Wildcats’ perimeter trio has been consistent all season. Brayden Burries leads with 15.5 points per game. Jaden Bradley adds 13.9 points and 4.7 assists while controlling tempo. Ivan Kharchenkov chips in 10.1 points and 1.5 steals per contest, giving Arizona defensive activity on the wing.
Inside, Arizona has the physical edge. Tobe Awaka averages 9.6 points and 9.6 rebounds in just 21.5 minutes per game. Motiejus Krivas is shooting 58.5 percent from the field and blocks 1.8 shots per game. Together they combine for 18 rebounds per night, which directly impacts second chance scoring and pace.
If Koa Peat returns from his lower leg strain, that frontcourt becomes even more difficult to handle. Arizona’s size forces opponents into tough half court possessions and limits clean looks inside.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Breakdown
Kansas enters 21 and 7 overall and 11 and 4 in conference play, still alive in the race for a top seed. They already beat Arizona once, 82 to 78, handing the Wildcats their first loss after a 23 and 0 start.
In that matchup, Flory Bidunga dominated with 23 points and 10 rebounds. Kansas attacked the paint and dictated physicality. Darryn Peterson missed that contest due to illness but is expected back, strengthening a perimeter that already features Tre White at 14.0 points per game and Melvin Council Jr. at 13.5 points with 5.1 assists.
Kansas just knocked off Houston 69 to 56, proving their defense can travel. They are not intimidated by ranked opponents, and their ceiling remains high.
Catching 10 points with a team that already beat this opponent is significant value in the market.
Prediction and Best Bet
Arizona at home deserves to be favored. Their size, rebounding and defensive versatility give them control in the paint. But 10 points is a large number against a Kansas team with proven interior scoring and improved perimeter depth.
Expect Arizona to dictate pace, especially if Peat returns, but Kansas should compete throughout.
Arizona wins and secures its share of the title. Kansas covers the 10 point spread. Lean slightly toward the under 149.5 given the defensive strength on both sides and half court execution.
Final Score: Arizona 77, Kansas 70
Lean: Kansas +10.0
Total: Under 149.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
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