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Kansas (23-9) vs Houston (27-5)
- When: Mar 13 2026, 9:30 PM
- Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(14) Kansas vs (5) Houston Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -6.0
Moneyline: Houston (-245)
Total: 136.5
Houston Cougars: Defense Wins Headaches
Welcome to the Big 12 Tournament where nobody is comfortable, everyone is stressed, and the defenses show up like they’re guarding the last slice of pizza in the breakroom. Houston enters the semifinal at 27-5 and doing what Houston does best. That would be making every opponent feel like scoring a basket requires a signed permission slip.
The Cougars had to grind out a 73-66 win over BYU on Thursday. Houston led by only one point with under seven minutes left before flipping the “defense mode” switch and closing the game on a 12-3 run. Basically the basketball equivalent of locking the doors and turning off the lights.
Houston ranks second nationally in scoring defense at 62.8 points allowed per game, which explains why opposing offenses tend to look like they just learned basketball yesterday.
Leading the charge is Kingston Flemings, who runs the show with 16.5 points, 5.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He dropped 17 points in the quarterfinal win and plays like someone who genuinely enjoys ruining other teams’ evenings.
Houston may not always be pretty, but they’re extremely effective. Think less “highlight reel offense” and more “welcome to the defensive nightmare.”
Kansas Jayhawks: Freshman Carry Job
Kansas meanwhile survived a classic Big 12 rock fight against TCU, pulling out a 78-73 win after trailing late in the second half. The Jayhawks closed the game on a 19-12 run, mostly thanks to the free throw line doing the heavy lifting.
Kansas shot under 40 percent from the field and only 4 of 17 from three, which is usually a recipe for disaster. But they went 30 of 37 from the free throw line, including 26 in the second half, which is basically the basketball version of winning ugly.
Freshman star Darryn Peterson led the way with 24 points, continuing his recent surge. After missing 11 games earlier in the season with injuries, Peterson logged 37 minutes against TCU and played the entire second half like someone who just remembered he’s extremely good at basketball.
Kansas already beat Houston once this season with a 69-56 win on Feb. 23, snapping Houston’s three-game run in the series.
Which means yes, Houston probably remembers that game.
And yes, revenge is definitely on the menu.
LVSB Betting Prediction
The line has Houston favored by 6.0 with the total at 136.5, which screams one thing loud and clear.
This game is going to be uglier than a casino buffet at 3 AM.
Houston’s defense is elite and Kansas tends to turn games into free throw marathons. Expect long possessions, physical defense, and at least three moments where someone complains about the refs.
Kansas will hang around because that’s what Kansas does in March.
But Houston’s defense eventually squeezes the life out of this one.
Final Score Prediction
Final Score: Houston 68, Kansas 61
Lean: Houston -6.0
Total: Under 136.5
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
