- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Kentucky (22-13) vs Iowa State (28-7)
- When: Mar 22 2026, 2:45 PM
- Where: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
(7) Kentucky vs (2) Iowa State Preview & Prediction
Spread: Iowa State -5.0
Moneyline: Iowa State (-220)
Total: 147.0
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Breakdown
Iowa State comes in looking like a team that can still make a deep run, even without a key piece. Dropping 108 points in the opener showed just how dangerous this offense can be when the guards take over. The big question is Joseph Jefferson’s ankle. He led the team in assists and losing that kind of playmaking usually hurts, but the Cyclones adjusted fast.
Killyan Toure stepped into the spotlight with 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists, running the offense with confidence. Dominick Nelson also gave valuable minutes, proving the depth is real. Then you have Milan Momcilovic, who stretches defenses with elite shooting. This is a team that thrives on pace, ball movement, and forcing mistakes on the other end.
From a betting angle, Iowa State’s ability to generate offense without Jefferson is the key takeaway. If they keep pushing tempo and forcing turnovers, they can control this game.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Breakdown
Kentucky already delivered one of the wildest moments of the tournament, and that matters. Surviving on a last-second 40-footer from Otega Oweh before taking over in overtime is the kind of momentum bettors pay attention to. Oweh dropped 35 points and continues to be the engine, with eight 20 plus point performances since mid February.
The Wildcats have multiple scoring options, but consistency is the concern. They struggled from deep in the first round, and if that continues, it puts pressure on Oweh to carry too much of the load. That said, their size and defensive versatility showed late, especially with Brandon Garrison and Mouhamed Dioubate protecting the rim and switching effectively.
If Kentucky can clean up their perimeter shooting and lean into their physical defense, they have the tools to stay within this number.
Prediction and Best Bet
This matchup comes down to structure versus momentum. Iowa State has the more reliable system and offensive balance, even without Jefferson. Kentucky has the shot creator in Oweh, but relies heavily on him when things tighten up.
With Iowa State favored by 5.0 and the total at 147.0, the Cyclones’ depth and pace give them the edge over 40 minutes. Kentucky will have stretches, but sustaining offense against Iowa State’s pressure is a tough ask.
Final Score: Iowa State 79, Kentucky 71
Lean: Iowa State -5.0
Total: Over 147.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
