Kentucky (24-11) vs Tennessee (29-7)
- When: Mar 28 2025, 7:39 PM
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, USA
- Where to watch: TBS
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Showdown: Kentucky vs Tennessee
Spread: Tennessee -4.5 | Total: 144.0
Two SEC powerhouses go head-to-head in Indianapolis on Friday night as No. 3 Kentucky and No. 2 Tennessee clash in a high-stakes Sweet 16 matchup with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. While the Wildcats aim to beat the Vols for the third time this season, Tennessee is looking for payback — and history.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Outlook
Record: 24-11
ATS: 20-15
O/U: 22-13
Kentucky enters this one on a hot streak, having shot lights out in the opening rounds and shutting down perimeter threats. The Wildcats drained 12 threes in both of their earlier wins over Tennessee and held Illinois and Troy to just 26.6% combined from deep.
Koby Brea has been leading the offense in March Madness, averaging 18 points per game while Otega Oweh is right behind at 17.5. Head coach Mark Pope knows his team can’t afford to rely on past success and must treat this as a standalone battle against one of the most balanced teams in the nation.
Why Bet Kentucky:
Already 2-0 vs Tennessee this season
Scorching from deep (38.3% in the tourney)
Held opponents to poor 3-point shooting
Kentucky thrives when they control the pace and shoot efficiently. If Brea and Oweh stay hot, they’ll make this game go down to the wire.
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Outlook
Record: 29-7
ATS: 17-17-1
O/U: 16-18-1
Tennessee is out for revenge. With the best defense in the country, the Volunteers are built to slow down any offense — even one as explosive as Kentucky’s. But they’ve underperformed in their two prior meetings, and star point guard Zakai Zeigler made it clear the focus is on clamping down this time around.
Rick Barnes’ squad is trying to break new ground — the Vols have never reached a Final Four. With senior leadership and new star Chaz Lanier, Tennessee believes this is their year. Lanier has been sensational, averaging 24.5 points through two games while showing no signs of postseason nerves.
Why Bet Tennessee:
Elite defense, allowing just 63.3 PPG
Lanier’s shooting (120 threes this season)
Motivated by previous losses and history-making potential
Expect a more physical and focused defensive effort this time around. Tennessee will want to dictate tempo and force Kentucky into tougher shots.
Prediction & Best Bet
Tennessee has the edge defensively and a deeper frontcourt, but Kentucky’s perimeter scoring and tournament momentum make this game feel like it’ll come down to the final possessions. The Vols may pull out the win, but this number looks a bit too high given how evenly matched these two are.
Final Score Prediction:
Tennessee 74, Kentucky 71
Best Bets:
Spread Lean: Kentucky +4.5
Total: Over 144.0 (Both teams are shooting well)
Chaz Lanier Over 18.5 Points
Koby Brea Over 2.5 Threes Made
This will be a war in Indy — and don’t be surprised if it goes down as one of the tournament’s best games.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
