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LA Chargers (11-6) at New England (14-3)
- When: Jan 11 2026, 8:15 PM
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Gillette Stadium
- Where to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Last Meeting: LAC 40-7, December 28th, 2024
LA Chargers vs New England Preview & Prediction
Spread: New England -3.5
Moneyline: New England (-200)
Total: 45.5
New England Patriots Betting Overview
New England enters the playoffs with a very different vibe than recent seasons. What started as a rebuilding year has turned into a full blown statement season, powered by the rapid rise of Drake Maye. The second year quarterback has gone from learning on the fly to commanding games, and now he gets his first postseason start at home with the Patriots favored by 3.5.
Maye’s confidence is noticeable, but his approach has stayed steady. New England leans on his arm, especially in big moments, and the offense is comfortable pushing the ball downfield. That matters against a Chargers defense that thrives on limiting explosive passes. The chess match between Maye and Los Angeles coverage schemes will likely decide whether the Patriots pull away or have to grind this one out.
At home, New England has been dominant, playing faster and more physical in cold weather conditions. The crowd should be a factor, especially early, as the Patriots look to control tempo and force Los Angeles into uncomfortable passing situations.
Patriots Player Prop Pick: Drake Maye over 242.5 passing yards – His willingness to attack vertically and New England’s aggressive play calling point toward volume through the air.
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Overview
The Chargers arrive as a dangerous road underdog with playoff experience but unfinished business. Justin Herbert is still chasing his first postseason win, and this spot offers both opportunity and pressure. Herbert has the arm talent to challenge any defense, but his health remains something to monitor after recent hand surgery.
Los Angeles will rely on its elite pass defense to keep this game close. The Chargers allowed the fewest air yards among playoff teams, which suggests they are comfortable forcing quarterbacks to be patient. That approach can work if the Chargers offense sustains drives and keeps Maye on the sideline.
The challenge is whether Los Angeles can protect Herbert long enough to let plays develop. New England’s defense is at its best when it creates confusion pre snap and forces quarterbacks into quick decisions.
Chargers Player Prop Pick: Justin Herbert over 31.5 passing attempts – Expect Los Angeles to lean on the pass as they chase points and try to neutralize the Patriots run defense.
Betting Outlook & NFL Expert Prediction
This sets up as a competitive but controlled playoff game rather than a shootout. The Patriots home edge, quarterback momentum, and balanced offense give them the advantage, while the Chargers should keep it close behind their defense.
Expect New England to pull away late with better execution in key moments.
Final Score: Patriots 24, Chargers 20
Lean: New England -3.5
Total: Under 45.5
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
