Maryland (14-5) at Illinois (13-5)
- When: Jan 23 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: State Farm Center, Champaign, IL, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Illinois vs. Maryland Betting Preview: Predictions and Insights
Spread: Illinois -7.5
Total: 157.0
Thursday’s Big Ten matchup features the 17th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini hosting the Maryland Terrapins in a clash of talented rosters, including three potential future NBA first-round picks. However, both teams and their star players are navigating challenges that could impact the outcome.
Illinois Fighting Illini:
The Fighting Illini (13-5, 5-3 Big Ten) have leaned on their dynamic freshmen duo, Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley, but both have faced recent adversity. Jakucionis, averaging 15.9 points, 5.3 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game, is battling tendinitis and foul troubles. In Illinois’ 80-78 loss to Michigan State, Jakucionis fouled out in just nine minutes, limiting his ability to dictate the game.
Despite Jakucionis’ absence, Illinois showed its depth. Will Riley, who had been struggling offensively, broke out with a 19-point performance, providing a much-needed spark. With Jakucionis healthy and Riley finding his rhythm, Illinois’ offense has the firepower to exploit Maryland’s weaknesses.
Illinois also boasts one of the top defenses in the Big Ten, ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Illini’s ability to disrupt Maryland’s interior game will likely be a deciding factor in this matchup.
Maryland Terrapins:
The Terrapins (14-5, 4-4 Big Ten) are anchored by freshman sensation Derik Queen, who averages 15.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. However, Queen’s production has dipped in January as he adjusts to the physicality of Big Ten play. He managed just three points in Sunday’s narrow 69-66 win over Nebraska, and coach Kevin Willard acknowledged the challenges Queen faces against older, more experienced competition.
Maryland’s success depends heavily on Queen dominating the paint, but Illinois’ size and defensive presence—led by 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic—will make that a tough task. The Terrapins will need to find consistent perimeter scoring to stay competitive, but their inconsistent shooting could hinder their chances.
Betting Insights:
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Spread Prediction: Illinois -7.5
Illinois’ home-court advantage, strong defense, and emerging offensive threats in Jakucionis and Riley make them the clear favorite. Maryland’s reliance on Queen in the post plays directly into Illinois’ strengths, as the Illini have the size to neutralize his impact. Expect Illinois to cover the spread with a balanced effort on both ends of the floor. -
Total Prediction: Under 157.0
While both teams have scoring potential, Maryland’s struggles against strong defenses and Illinois’ emphasis on slowing down Queen suggest a lower-scoring affair. The Illini’s defense should dictate the pace, keeping the total under the 157-point mark.
Player Props to Watch:
Kasparas Jakucionis Points Over/Under: Bet on the over if his foul troubles are behind him. He’s poised for a bounce-back game after limited minutes in the loss to Michigan State.
Derik Queen Rebounds: Take the under, as Illinois’ size advantage will likely limit his production on the glass.
Final Prediction:
Illinois flexes its defensive muscle and takes advantage of Maryland’s struggles on the road, securing a comfortable victory. Final Score: Illinois 75, Maryland 64.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook