Memphis (47-33) at Denver (48-32)
- When: Apr 11 2025, 9:00 PM
- Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO, USA
- TV: ALT
Grizzlies vs Nuggets – NBA Prediction, Odds & Betting Analysis
Spread: Denver -7.0 | Total: 243.0
The Denver Nuggets return home for their final regular-season game at Ball Arena on Friday night, looking to build on a crucial road win and solidify their playoff position against the visiting Memphis Grizzlies. Denver is listed as a 7-point favorite with a lofty total set at 243, signaling expectations for a high-paced shootout.
Denver Nuggets Outlook
Denver (48-32) snapped a four-game losing skid with a 124-116 win over Sacramento on Wednesday, a bounce-back effort following major organizational shake-ups — namely, the firing of head coach Michael Malone and the decision not to extend GM Calvin Booth’s contract. The team responded well under pressure, even with Jamal Murray still sidelined by a lingering hamstring injury.
Nikola Jokic continues to push for an elite milestone, flirting with a triple-double season. He’s averaging 29.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists, putting him on track to join Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook as the only players to average a triple-double over a full season. His ability to carry the offense, especially in big moments, gives Denver a significant edge.
The Nuggets are still battling for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. With two games remaining, including Sunday’s showdown at Houston, Denver controls its fate. A win Friday would virtually secure a top-six spot and keep them away from the chaos of the play-in round.
Memphis Grizzlies Outlook
Memphis (47-33) is in a tight playoff race of its own, now part of a three-way tie with Golden State and Minnesota. After getting run off the court in a 141-125 loss to the Timberwolves on Thursday night, the Grizzlies fell to seventh in the West. That puts even more pressure on this matchup, especially considering a loss could drop them into the dreaded eighth spot.
Ja Morant continues to light it up, dropping 36 points against Minnesota despite his limited action this season. He leads Memphis with 23.2 points per game, followed by Jaren Jackson Jr. at 22.2 and Desmond Bane at 19.2. However, the Grizzlies will be without rookie Jaylen Wells (wrist), further thinning their depth on the second night of a back-to-back.
The good news for Memphis is they’ve already won two of three meetings this season versus Denver, meaning a win Friday would clinch the season series — a critical tiebreaker if the playoff seeding comes down to head-to-head records.
Betting Prediction
This game holds massive playoff implications for both teams, but the spot clearly favors Denver. The Nuggets are rested, at home, and playing with a sense of urgency after a front-office shakeup. Meanwhile, Memphis comes in tired, on the second night of a back-to-back, and dealing with multiple injuries.
Expect Jokic to dominate again and push his MVP campaign further. Denver’s depth and home crowd should carry them to a double-digit win.
Final Score Prediction: Nuggets 127, Grizzlies 118
Best Bets:
Spread: Denver -7
Total: Over 243
Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Assists
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points
Denver covers comfortably as Jokic delivers another monster stat line and the Grizzlies run out of gas late.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
