Miami (5-6-0) at Green Bay (8-3-0)
- When: Nov 28 2024, 8:20 PM
- Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Where to watch: NBC
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
Moneyline
Miami Dolphins +170
Green Bay Packers -200
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
Point Spread
Miami Dolphins 3.5 (-105)
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-115)
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
Total
Over 47.5 (EVEN)
Under 47.5 (-120)
- Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
Key Players:
Miami: Tua Tagovailoa
Green Bay: Jordan Love
Team Stats
| Dolphins | Packers | |
| 5-6 | Record | 8-3 |
| 2-3 | Away & Home | 4-2 |
| 5-6-0 | ATS | 5-6-0 |
| 5-6-0 | O/U | 6-5-0 |
Last Matchup:
GB 26-20, December 25th, 2022
Game Preview
Thanksgiving night sets the stage for a fascinating showdown as the Miami Dolphins, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. With frigid conditions expected and a snow-dusted field in play, this matchup could prove pivotal for bettors seeking value in an intriguing contrast of styles.
Miami’s Cold-Weather Struggles
The Dolphins (5-6) have historically faltered in cold weather, losing their last 11 games with kickoff temperatures below 40 degrees, according to Sportradar. Their last win in such conditions was in 2016, an overtime thriller at Buffalo. Temperatures at Lambeau are forecasted to hover in the 20s, a major hurdle for Tagovailoa, who hails from Hawaii and played college football in Alabama.
“It’s all about mindset,” said Tagovailoa, who has struggled in freezing conditions before, including a playoff loss at Kansas City last season where the temperature was minus-4.
Bettors looking at Miami’s moneyline might weigh these historical challenges, especially against a Packers team thriving in such conditions.
Packers Riding Momentum
The Packers (8-3) come in hot, fresh off a 38-10 rout of the San Francisco 49ers. With wins in their last two games, Green Bay boasts a potent mix of a strong ground game and opportunistic defense. Running back Josh Jacobs has been a force, ranking third in the NFL with 944 rushing yards. Meanwhile, safety Xavier McKinney leads the league with seven interceptions, setting up a fascinating battle against Miami’s high-powered passing game.
Green Bay thrives on turnover creation, ranking in the league’s top 10, and Miami has been prone to giving the ball away in tough conditions. Packers coach Matt LaFleur emphasized Tagovailoa’s precision but highlighted his team’s ability to disrupt timing routes with disciplined coverage.
Betting Angles: Key Matchups and Trends
Tagovailoa’s recent hot streak—seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games—will face its toughest test yet. The Packers’ pass rush, ranked in the NFL’s top 10, could exploit Miami’s vulnerabilities in cold weather. Meanwhile, Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has been on fire, scoring three touchdowns in his last two games, making him an intriguing prop bet for touchdown scorers.
On Green Bay’s side, tight end Tucker Kraft remains a red-zone threat, tallying six touchdowns this season. With Lambeau’s icy conditions likely favoring a ground-and-pound approach, Jacobs and the Packers’ rushing attack will be crucial, particularly against Miami’s middling run defense.
Historical Edge and Coaching Milestone
The Packers hold an edge in this series, with LaFleur tying legendary coaches like Bill Cowher and Andy Reid for wins through six seasons. Green Bay’s familiarity with quick turnarounds on Thanksgiving—a win over Detroit last year after a short week—adds another layer of confidence for bettors backing the Packers.
Final Thoughts
This matchup offers plenty of betting intrigue. The Dolphins need to overcome both the elements and their historical cold-weather struggles. The Packers, with their balanced offense and opportunistic defense, seem well-equipped to handle the challenge. Look for Green Bay to control the tempo, making their spread and total rushing yards appealing bets. Miami’s offensive stars, particularly Jonnu Smith, provide value in prop markets, but the frigid conditions may ultimately tip the scales in favor of the Packers.
NFL Parlay Picks & Predictions
Final Score: Green Bay 26-20
Expert Pick: Green Bay -3½ (-115) & Under 47½ (-120)
A $100 Parlay Bet will return $343
- NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
