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Miami (18-15) at Detroit (25-8)
- When: Jan 1 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI, USA
- TV: FDSSUN
Miami vs Detroit Preview & Prediction
Spread: Detroit -4.5
Moneyline: Detroit (-185)
Total: 237.5
Detroit Pistons Betting Breakdown
Detroit finally gets to unpack its bags. After spending most of the past two weeks living out of suitcases, the Pistons return home for a favorable stretch, playing nine of their next 11 games in Detroit. That homestand starts with confidence sky high following a dominant 128-106 win over the Lakers.
That win was not about hot shooting alone. Detroit’s defense set the tone, forcing 21 turnovers and converting them into 30 easy points. The Pistons also flexed their depth, with the bench piling up 67 points and overwhelming Los Angeles after halftime. This team looks built to sustain pressure for four quarters.
Marcus Sasser’s return has been a quiet boost. The guard dropped a season high 19 points against the Lakers and looked comfortable running the second unit. Detroit’s defensive identity snapped back after a couple of shaky performances, and the ball movement has followed. Cade Cunningham continues to orchestrate without forcing offense, which has kept Detroit balanced and dangerous.
Tobias Harris left the last game early with a hip issue, so his status matters, but Detroit has already proven it can survive short rotations. At home, with rest and momentum, the Pistons are in a strong spot to control tempo again.
Detroit Player Prop Pick: Cade Cunningham over 26.5 points – He torched Miami in the first meeting and thrives in up tempo games.
Miami Heat Betting Breakdown
Miami arrives riding a three game winning streak, but the style is the real story. The Heat have turned the pace dial way up, averaging over 138 points per game during the streak. When Miami runs, it becomes unpredictable and difficult to defend, especially in transition.
Norman Powell has been the engine lately, pouring in over 24 points per game and punishing defenses that fail to get set. Miami’s depth has allowed Erik Spoelstra to keep fresh legs on the floor, which feeds into their desire to play fast and hunt early looks.
That said, this matchup is tougher than the recent box scores suggest. Detroit’s defense thrives on disrupting rhythm, and the Pistons already proved they can survive a Miami scoring surge earlier this season. If Miami cannot consistently protect the ball, that pace could work against them.
Miami Player Prop Pick: Norman Powell over 22.5 points – His usage and green light make him a focal scorer again.
NBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
This sets up as another high scoring affair, but Detroit’s defense and home edge matter. Expect the Pistons to absorb Miami’s early push, clamp down late, and pull away with depth and discipline.
Final Score: Pistons 123, Heat 118
Lean: Detroit -4.5
Total: Over 237.5
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
