Michigan State (30-6) vs Auburn (31-5)
- When: Mar 30 2025, 5:05 PM
- Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Auburn vs. Michigan State: South Region Final Breakdown & Betting Preview
Spread: Auburn -5.0 | Total: 147.5
Auburn Tigers (31-5)
Auburn enters the Elite Eight riding a wave of momentum, fueled by an explosive trio of scorers and clutch second-half play. The Tigers staged a major comeback in Friday’s win over Michigan, erasing a nine-point deficit with 12 minutes left thanks to freshman Tahaad Pettiford’s late-game heroics. Pettiford exploded for 15 of his 20 points down the stretch, while veterans Johni Broome (22 points, 16 rebounds) and Denver Jones (20 points) anchored the effort.
Coach Bruce Pearl, aiming for his second Final Four appearance, continues to lean on Pettiford, who’s averaging 19.7 points in the tournament. His ability to score in bunches and handle pressure will be key, especially in what’s expected to be a tight, physical game.
Player Props to Watch:
Tahaad Pettiford Points (Over 13.5): He’s playing like a seasoned vet, and the moment doesn’t seem too big.
Johni Broome Rebounds (Over 12.5): His size and motor make him a force inside; another double-double looks likely.
Michigan State Spartans (30-6)
Tom Izzo’s squad showed its grit again in a come-from-behind win over Ole Miss, thanks to Jase Richardson’s breakout 20-point effort. The freshman, son of MSU legend Jason Richardson, continues to write his own story during March Madness. Coen Carr also chipped in with 15 points, as the Spartans used a 14-2 second-half run to take control and punch their ticket to the regional final.
MSU will need a balanced effort again, especially defensively, to slow down Auburn’s dynamic trio. Expect Izzo to mix in bigs like Szymon Zapala and Xavier Booker to counter Broome’s inside presence. On offense, they’ll need Richardson to maintain his scoring and continue pushing the tempo.
Player Props to Watch:
Jase Richardson Points (Over 16.5): He’s been rising to the occasion and could play a key role again.
Coen Carr Points + Rebounds (Over 19.5): Energy player who fills up the box score when it matters.
Betting Prediction & Final Thoughts
This matchup pits two experienced, well-coached squads against each other, with both leaning heavily on young breakout stars. Auburn’s offensive firepower and depth make them a nightmare to defend, while Michigan State counters with toughness, rebounding, and playoff-tested coaching.
Auburn has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games, and their late-game execution gives them an edge. However, Michigan State has been battle-tested all season and is peaking at the right time.
Prediction: Auburn 78, Michigan State 71
Best Bets:
Auburn -5.0
Over 147.5
Tahaad Pettiford Over 16. Points Prop
Johni Broome Over 12.5 Rebounds Prop
This one shapes up as a high-intensity battle with Final Four implications, but Auburn’s closing ability gives them the edge.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
