Michigan (13-3) at Minnesota (8-9)
- When: Jan 16 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- Where to watch: Fox Sports 1
Michigan enters Thursday’s matchup as a 9.5-point favorite with a total set at 144.5, aiming to extend its winning streak to six games against a struggling Minnesota squad still searching for its first Big Ten victory.
Game Breakdown and Betting Insights
Michigan has been a force in conference play, leveraging wins against former Pac-12 schools like USC, UCLA, and Washington to bolster their record. Under first-year head coach Dusty May, the Wolverines have adopted a high-octane offense that has delivered 85+ points in their last eight games. Despite their offensive firepower, May sees areas for refinement, emphasizing better ball movement and spacing.
The Wolverines lead Division I in field-goal percentage (51.9%), a testament to their unselfish play. Big man Vladislav Goldin has been a key contributor, leading the team in scoring with 15.4 points per game. He’s coming off strong performances, including a 36-point effort against UCLA. Goldin, along with Danny Wolf (12.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG), forms a dominant frontcourt duo. Michigan’s depth is evident, with five players averaging double figures, including Tre Donaldson, Roddy Gayle Jr., and Nimari Burnett.
Minnesota, on the other hand, has yet to find its footing in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers (8-9, 0-6) have dropped four straight, including a 77-71 loss to Maryland on Monday. Head coach Ben Johnson remains optimistic but acknowledges the need for better execution. Turnovers have been a significant issue for Minnesota, averaging 14.3 per game over their last three contests, including 16 against Maryland.
The Gophers rely heavily on Dawson Garcia, who leads the team with 18.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. However, he’ll face a tough challenge against Michigan’s imposing interior defense led by Goldin and Wolf. Minnesota’s secondary scoring options, including Mike Mitchell (11.3 PPG) and Lu’Cye Patterson (10.6 PPG), have been inconsistent, which could further tilt the scales in Michigan’s favor.
Predictions and Best Bets
Prediction: Michigan 82, Minnesota 68
Spread Bet: Michigan -9.5 – The Wolverines’ balanced scoring and dominance in the paint should allow them to cover against a Minnesota team struggling with turnovers and inconsistency.
Total Points Bet: Over 144.5 – With Michigan’s potent offense and Minnesota’s defensive struggles, expect plenty of scoring, particularly from Michigan’s efficient shooters.
Player Props:
Vladislav Goldin Over 16.5 Points: Goldin has been on fire, and Minnesota lacks the defensive presence to contain him.
Dawson Garcia Over 18.5 Points: Garcia remains the focal point of Minnesota’s offense and should see plenty of opportunities, even in a losing effort.
Danny Wolf Over 9.5 Rebounds: With Minnesota’s turnover issues and missed shots, Wolf is primed to dominate the glass.
Key Factors to Watch
Turnovers: Minnesota must limit giveaways to keep the game competitive. Michigan’s ability to capitalize on mistakes could lead to easy points in transition.
Interior Matchup: The battle between Garcia and Michigan’s frontcourt will be pivotal. If Garcia can hold his own, Minnesota might stay within striking distance.
Three-Point Shooting: Michigan’s perimeter shooting, led by Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett, could break the game open if they find their rhythm early.
While Minnesota may put up a fight early, Michigan’s depth, efficiency, and recent form make them the clear choice to win and cover the spread in this Big Ten showdown.
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
