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Michigan (22-1) vs Northwestern (10-14)
- When: Feb 11 2026, 8:30 PM
- Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL, USA
- Where to watch: BTN
(2) Michigan vs Northwestern Preview & Prediction
Spread: Michigan -15.5
Moneyline: Michigan (-1667)
Total: 154.0
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Breakdown
Northwestern returns home staring at a massive challenge as a 15 point underdog against the second ranked team in the country. The Wildcats have dropped three straight and nine of their last eleven, but the effort level has not completely disappeared. They competed at Iowa after getting blown out earlier in the week, which at least shows some fight.
Nick Martinelli continues to be the offensive engine. He is carrying the scoring load every night and rarely shies away from big moments. The issue for Northwestern has been defensive consistency and closing halves. Against a Michigan team that punishes mistakes, empty trips can snowball quickly.
From a betting perspective, Northwestern’s best path is tempo control. If they allow this to turn into a track meet, they simply do not have the depth or efficiency to keep pace. As a 15 point home dog, they could hang around early, but sustaining it for forty minutes is another story.
Nick Martinelli Prop Pick: Over 19.5 Points – He is the clear first option and should see heavy usage, especially if Northwestern is chasing points in the second half.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Breakdown
Michigan has been a machine, especially away from home. Five straight double digit road wins tell you this group does not rattle easily. They survived earlier close calls in conference play and seem to have sharpened their focus since then.
Yaxel Lendeborg anchors the interior and sets the tone physically. When he is active on the glass, Michigan controls both pace and second chance opportunities. The Wolverines also bring balance, with multiple players capable of double figures, which makes them difficult to scheme against.
As a 15 point favorite with a total sitting at 153.5, the question is margin. Michigan has shown it can separate in the second half when opponents start pressing. Northwestern’s defense has not proven it can slow elite frontcourts, and that is a red flag against this matchup.
Yaxel Lendeborg Prop Pick: Over 7.5 Rebounds – Northwestern has struggled on the glass, and Lendeborg’s motor should translate into double digit board potential.
Expert Final Score Prediction
Michigan’s depth and physicality should eventually wear down the Wildcats. Northwestern may keep it respectable for a stretch, but over forty minutes the talent gap shows.
Final Score: Michigan 84, Northwestern 67
Lean: Michigan -15.5
Total: Under 154.0
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
