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Michigan (9-3) at Texas (9-3)
- When: Dec 31 2025, 3:00 PM
- Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
- Where to watch: ABC
- Last Meeting: Texas 31-12, September 7th, 2024
(18) Michigan vs (13) Texas Preview & Prediction
Spread: Texas -7.0
Moneyline: Texas (-280)
Total: 48.5
Texas Longhorns Betting Outlook
Texas arrives in Orlando with a chip on its shoulder and plenty to prove. Steve Sarkisian made noise late in the season lobbying for playoff inclusion, but an early stumble against Florida ultimately kept the Longhorns out of the CFP. That disappointment now turns into motivation, as Texas looks to close the year by reminding everyone it still belongs among the elite.
Roster turnover will test Texas’ depth. Several running backs exited via opt outs and the transfer portal, leaving the ground game in the hands of young, unproven options. That shifts more responsibility to quarterback Arch Manning, who has embraced the spotlight all season. Manning showed growth as the year progressed and confirmed he will return next season, signaling confidence and stability at the game’s most important position.
Defensively, Texas is thinner than usual, especially at linebacker and safety, but the Longhorns still bring speed and physicality up front. Sarkisian’s staff will likely lean into tempo and efficiency, trusting execution over explosiveness. From a betting perspective, Texas’ talent advantage and quarterback continuity stand out despite the roster churn.
Texas Prediction Lean: Win and cover behind quarterback play and situational motivation.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Outlook
Michigan enters the Citrus Bowl under a cloud of chaos. A late season coaching scandal forced the Wolverines into interim leadership, and the timing could not have been worse. The sudden transition has created uncertainty throughout the program, though players insist the locker room remains focused.
The Wolverines are also dealing with several opt outs and injury concerns, particularly on defense. Key pass rushers and linebackers will be unavailable, and the run game is less than full strength. Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood remains the centerpiece, flashing elite potential but still learning to navigate big game pressure against top tier defenses.
Michigan’s offense has shown flashes but struggled with consistency away from home. Without a stable coaching environment and facing a disciplined Texas team, sustaining drives may be difficult. The Wolverines will need to lean on effort and emotion, but those edges are tough to quantify at the betting window.
Michigan Prediction Lean: Competitive early, but depth and instability catch up late.
Betting Outlook and Final Prediction
Texas’ stability at quarterback and clearer direction give the Longhorns the edge. Michigan’s turmoil and defensive absences loom large. Expect Texas to control the game flow and pull away in the second half.
Final Score: Texas 31, Michigan 20
Lean: Texas -7.0
Total: Over 48.5
- NCAA Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
